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Originally Posted by dc_dux
Ace...the Bush plan is totally dependent on items outside of our control, specficially, the will and capacity of Maliki to control al Sadr and his 50,000+ thuggish militia, the Badr Brigrade that has as much support among Shias as does the fragile government.
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I guess the amout of control we have in Bush plan depends on one's perspective. I put my focus on our military being freed to do what an army is designed to do. I again say - we have to get the situation under control. After that, then I think Maliki will be tested. If he fails he will be removed from power, one way or another.
I read the five point Biden plan. It may be the long-term or mid-term solution. I think in the short-term there has to be a strong show of force.
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Sectarian violence among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds is now the major impediment to stability and progress in Iraq. No number of troops can solve that problem. The only way to hold Iraq together and create the conditions for our armed forces to responsibly withdraw is to give Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds incentives to pursue their interests peacefully. That requires a sustainable political settlement, which is the primary objective of our plan.
The plan would maintain a unified Iraq by decentralizing it and giving Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis breathing room in their own regions - as provided for in the Iraqi constitution. The central government would be responsible for common interests, like border security and the distribution of oil revenues. We would secure support from the Sunnis - who have no oil -- by guaranteeing them a proportionate share (about 20 percent) of oil revenues. We would increase economic aid, ask the oil-rich Arab Gulf states to fund it and tie all assistance to the protection of minority rights and the creation of a jobs program. We would convene a regional conference to enlist the support of Iraq's neighbors and create a Contact Group of the major powers to enforce their commitments. And we would ask our military to draw up plans to responsibly withdraw most U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of 2007 - enough time for the political settlement to take hold.
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I am not sure how Biden determined which incentives to include or exclude, but it seems to me that Shiites, Sunnis, and the Kurds need to determine what they would accept. The question is how do you get them to sit down and talk. My answer is - A show of force to put an end the the chaos. We won't stop all violence, but we can not expect any long-term solutions when the parties are in the current circumstances.