I'm sure someone else with more time can elaborate this more (or articulate it better), but generally here's the idea:
I'm a criminal in the UK (or one of many places in the US where it is illegal for most people to carry). I know nobody is armed. That means that everyone is an easy target. I have little fear that the intended victim (or a bystander) will kill me if I commit a crime.
I'm now a criminal in a place where I know people are carrying, but I don't know who. I have to think twice about where I commit a crime, because not only might the person I commit the crime against be able to defend themself with a weapon, but I won't know until it's too late. Plus any number of bystanders may also have a weapon and kill me. I'd rather drive up to Washington, DC where it's guaranteed that nobody is armed.
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