Technology has increased (and is increasing) at an exponential rate. You can't simply look back 100 years and say "look at how far we've come." You have to look at the history of the Earth and the fact that "the age of humans" is a geologic blink of an eye. We have come from banging sticks & stones together to space travel (well, the ability to go into space anyway) WAYYYYY faster than it took for the dinosaurs to meet their demise, and that wasn't at their own hands.
NOW look at the last 100 years in comparison to the history of man, and it boggles the mind to thing how much farther we will be in 100 years. (I'm sure you can all remember the days of the 100 Meg hard-drive? And that was just a few years ago) Hawking's prediction holds a lot of clout with me because the thought of the "accidental appocolypse" seems the most likely senario. Current technology may be limited, but once something new is invented that CAN withstand the heat of the sun, who knows?
The artificial black hole thing really scares me. Who knows, maybe every black hole in space is what remains of every "intelligent" race of beings who attempted to create an artificial black hole???
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