Originally Posted by Yakk

Terrorism...

On 9/11 < 3000 people died in NYC.

Population of NYC is 8 million.

That is 1 in 2667 people in NYC died.

Every year, 1 in 7000 people die from a car accident.

So it would take a terrorist attack the size that hit NYC every 3 years in every "NYC size" chunk of population, to match the car death rate.

That would be about 12 9/11 sized attacks every year, or 1 per month.

This is why terrorist attacks are not a serious offensive military threat. The amount of terrorist attacks required in order to do serious damage to the target is simply ridiculous.

As a defensive measure, they are more effective. But they do rely on the attacking power not going all out -- if, for example, the USA where to use scorched earth tactics (simply kill every man, woman and child in Iraq), terrorist tactics by Iraqis wouldn't be an effective defence against it.

Meanwhile, a full-scale military is an effective defence against a terrorist force who seeks to kill every man, woman and child in the USA.

Military force being a threat of force, and not just an overwealming application of force, is a choice that modern nations make. Do understand that it is a choice. Terrorists are simply people who have chosen not to limit themselves by the rules of limited engagement -- not to wear identifying equipment, and not to attempt to restrict their attacks from civilian targets.

If a modern military chose to follow the same tactics, there wouldn't be anyone left to stand up against them.

Even in Veitnam, the war was not a total war on the part of the Americans. They didn't target engage in full scale genocide. They where not close to 100% ethical, but don't underestimate how much the Americans held back.

The Vietnam/Iraq wars, if anything, teaches the price of having a civilized military who plays by the rules. There are benefits to having a civilized military (many of them!) -- but there are also costs.

So the way to look at Terrorism is "what is the proper response of a relatively civilized military when attacked by people who don't follow rules of engagement"?

Personally, I'm more afraid that it will be decided to throw out the rules of engagement, more than I am of piddly terrorist cells blowing up a building or two.