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Statistical modeling and prediction has more bullshit in it than we often admit. It's right until it's wrong, and that's pretty much all there is to say. A race can't be called definitively until enough of the vote is in to mathematically lock one candidate out. Anything before that can't be considered definitive - there will always be predictions (educated guesses, but guessing nonetheless) involved. That said, I think it will be some time before we have tightly packaged results on election day. Once the recount option was used so vigorously in 2000 it will never be completely off the table again.
My only clear thought is that Iraq will again be a major issue in the 2008 elections. The new Congress will only be in session for 16 months before campaigning begins in earnest, and that isn't much time to assess, debate, vote, and act in ways that can be considered settled to presidential candidates. We're not done with this for some time. And there's some justice in that - we don't deserve to put Iraq behind us anytime soon. You break it, you buy it.
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Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam
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