Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - prognostications based on election results?

MuadDib · 11-08-2006, 08:28 AM

1. Media: The 'talking heads' calling elections and other such activity is actually highly scientific. Clearly I mean scientific in the mathematic/scientific method manner of the term. The media calls elections based on two major factors (though a vast number of sub-factors are taken into account). Those factors are the reported vote statistic and historical precedent. Statistically they look to the number of votes reported in relation to the spread and voting population of a given state. For example, if you have a small state like Rhode Island and 15% of the vote is in but the spread is also 15% appart then you can call that election because to make up that difference is politically unheard of, if not mathematically impossible. This is where the precedent comes in. In our example if the rest of the state went to the opponent by a margin of 75% or more then the opponent would win, but that is politically impossible. If the state was that one-sided in every county outside of the one's reported we would either know about it and thus not call the election (as the decision on MO was withheld even with Talent leading and only 15% remaining, because the remaining counties were known to be deeply Democratic. Even there it still barely made more than a 1% difference.) or it would be red flagged for corruption. It is important to realize that these are only projections, but they are extremely accurate and well thought out projections and when they are wrong it is because of a very huge deal.

2. Results:
Ideology: I predict that this will move the Republicans further right. Now bear with me on this because I don't think it's because they don't get the message from this election cycle. They will move right because they lost a good number of moderate seats and the ones that held were pretty right-entrenched. Also, they will have to go reactionary on this because they don't want to show that the Dems can do the job they couldn't. Now the Dems got to this point by moving to the center so right now the center vote is with them and the Repubs aren't going to take it, at least not for a while and not without the Dems screwing up this opportunity. That being said the latter is a possibility. If the Dems take this election as a mandate to liberalism then they will fall and fall hard. Though we now have more moderate Dems in seats there are still a good number of entrenched far left liberals who hold a lot of sway in the party. However, the ball is in the blue's court now so they get to decide how to play it while the red will be stuck playing defensive reactionary politics and won't have the discretion to define themselves and the policy that they used to.

Governance: Again reactionary now. Thereis an air of change is about and they are going to need to show tempered resistance to Dems while not becoming obstructionist. They are also going to need to be able to distinguish themselves from Dems. I think this will lead to them fighting loudly on issues then giving them votes to have it their way (if they need them). Warn them that they were wrong then give them enough rope to hang themselves. Make them fight for every inch and try to force them leftwards.

Structure: Back to the balance of powers and not a moment too soon. Honestly, even with just the house we are going to have some great checks on the executive and we're going to be moving back to traditional America politics. That means vetos and gridlock, but that also means scrutiny and oversight. I see a massive review and a moderate readjustment of Iraq policy. I see a call for a restructuring of the Pentagon and possibly in Homeland Security. There's gonna be a lot of heat, a lot of name calling, and a fair amount of gridlock; but in the end this is what this election was about. I see a lot of drama coming out of this, but it will be good for the nation.

Iraq: Let's be clear, there will be no withdrawl. There will be deep review of policy, there will be attempts at a new direction, but the specifics will be left to the executive. I predict that we will have at least 9 months of investigation, review, and analysis. I then see another 6 months of policy making and debate. Then when the dust has settled we may have two locked sides, but more likely is we'll have a deeper understanding and a compromise position that will amount to us remaining Iraq for a long time, but reducing our numbers there slowly and steadily and also revamping our approach to Iraq restructuring policy, but not military policy.

Executive Power: This was the second major issue of this election. This and Iraq are why the Dems won. Americans are inherently uncomfortable with centralized power. That fear is in our blood and taught to us from our first social studies class onward. It doesn't matter if it's and FDR or a GW Bush, we don't like absolute authority. That isn't to say that either president actually had absolute power, but America was not comfortable with this. War will always bring us behind strong leaders for a fair amount of time, but even that becomes common place after a while and we get back to our democratic (that's lower case, type of government democratic not party Democratic just to be clear) roots.

Economy: We are deeply in trouble here. We are in the whole and this will be the Democratic issue of this Congress. We need to balance this budget and stop deficit spending. This issue is not what won the Dems the election, but they will need to address it (and address it well) because the 'mandate' for change is not only limited in it's scope, but also in it's time span. They have two years to either take care of the corruption and Iraq or at least show that they are making progress and fighting tooth and nail to get there. In '08 the Dems can't cry Iraq or corruption. The Repubs will scream failure and false promise. What the Dems will start to focus on and move towards is this issue because once progress has been made in Iraq (and this would happen in two regardless of the outcome of this election) there will still be the economy. The Dems aquired the power of the purse, but it is an empty purse and they will have their hands full trying to refill it. If they can provide oversight in Iraq and make headway with the budget (not necessarily the economy because that is very much effected by the previous Congress) then they will have a good '08

3. Conclusion: Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity! It's a good day to be a Dem. If you're a Dem go ahead and pat yourself on the back and celebrate, but when the day is done you've inherited a legislative mess and you asked for it. Roll up your sleeves and get to work because you'll be fighting six years of policy and unrestricted White House authority. You'll be fighting opposition from the right that doesn't want to look they can't do a job you can. You'll be fighting the left who wants to pull you away from what got you hear and abuse this stewardship for party gain. And most of all, you'll be fighting the inertia of a snowballing right agenda that has massive momentum. That's an Iraq policy that you wouldn't have done,but you're stuck with, an economy that is deep in the red, but you didn't put it there, and a social agenda that will need to be approached with the greatest of delicacy and temperance. Only time will tell if the Dems can control the Congress and control themselves long enough to possibily make change. They can if they have the will, let's see what they do.

11-08-2006, 08:28 AM	#5 (permalink)
MuadDib Psycho	1. Media: The 'talking heads' calling elections and other such activity is actually highly scientific. Clearly I mean scientific in the mathematic/scientific method manner of the term. The media calls elections based on two major factors (though a vast number of sub-factors are taken into account). Those factors are the reported vote statistic and historical precedent. Statistically they look to the number of votes reported in relation to the spread and voting population of a given state. For example, if you have a small state like Rhode Island and 15% of the vote is in but the spread is also 15% appart then you can call that election because to make up that difference is politically unheard of, if not mathematically impossible. This is where the precedent comes in. In our example if the rest of the state went to the opponent by a margin of 75% or more then the opponent would win, but that is politically impossible. If the state was that one-sided in every county outside of the one's reported we would either know about it and thus not call the election (as the decision on MO was withheld even with Talent leading and only 15% remaining, because the remaining counties were known to be deeply Democratic. Even there it still barely made more than a 1% difference.) or it would be red flagged for corruption. It is important to realize that these are only projections, but they are extremely accurate and well thought out projections and when they are wrong it is because of a very huge deal. 2. Results: Ideology: I predict that this will move the Republicans further right. Now bear with me on this because I don't think it's because they don't get the message from this election cycle. They will move right because they lost a good number of moderate seats and the ones that held were pretty right-entrenched. Also, they will have to go reactionary on this because they don't want to show that the Dems can do the job they couldn't. Now the Dems got to this point by moving to the center so right now the center vote is with them and the Repubs aren't going to take it, at least not for a while and not without the Dems screwing up this opportunity. That being said the latter is a possibility. If the Dems take this election as a mandate to liberalism then they will fall and fall hard. Though we now have more moderate Dems in seats there are still a good number of entrenched far left liberals who hold a lot of sway in the party. However, the ball is in the blue's court now so they get to decide how to play it while the red will be stuck playing defensive reactionary politics and won't have the discretion to define themselves and the policy that they used to. Governance: Again reactionary now. Thereis an air of change is about and they are going to need to show tempered resistance to Dems while not becoming obstructionist. They are also going to need to be able to distinguish themselves from Dems. I think this will lead to them fighting loudly on issues then giving them votes to have it their way (if they need them). Warn them that they were wrong then give them enough rope to hang themselves. Make them fight for every inch and try to force them leftwards. Structure: Back to the balance of powers and not a moment too soon. Honestly, even with just the house we are going to have some great checks on the executive and we're going to be moving back to traditional America politics. That means vetos and gridlock, but that also means scrutiny and oversight. I see a massive review and a moderate readjustment of Iraq policy. I see a call for a restructuring of the Pentagon and possibly in Homeland Security. There's gonna be a lot of heat, a lot of name calling, and a fair amount of gridlock; but in the end this is what this election was about. I see a lot of drama coming out of this, but it will be good for the nation. Iraq: Let's be clear, there will be no withdrawl. There will be deep review of policy, there will be attempts at a new direction, but the specifics will be left to the executive. I predict that we will have at least 9 months of investigation, review, and analysis. I then see another 6 months of policy making and debate. Then when the dust has settled we may have two locked sides, but more likely is we'll have a deeper understanding and a compromise position that will amount to us remaining Iraq for a long time, but reducing our numbers there slowly and steadily and also revamping our approach to Iraq restructuring policy, but not military policy. Executive Power: This was the second major issue of this election. This and Iraq are why the Dems won. Americans are inherently uncomfortable with centralized power. That fear is in our blood and taught to us from our first social studies class onward. It doesn't matter if it's and FDR or a GW Bush, we don't like absolute authority. That isn't to say that either president actually had absolute power, but America was not comfortable with this. War will always bring us behind strong leaders for a fair amount of time, but even that becomes common place after a while and we get back to our democratic (that's lower case, type of government democratic not party Democratic just to be clear) roots. Economy: We are deeply in trouble here. We are in the whole and this will be the Democratic issue of this Congress. We need to balance this budget and stop deficit spending. This issue is not what won the Dems the election, but they will need to address it (and address it well) because the 'mandate' for change is not only limited in it's scope, but also in it's time span. They have two years to either take care of the corruption and Iraq or at least show that they are making progress and fighting tooth and nail to get there. In '08 the Dems can't cry Iraq or corruption. The Repubs will scream failure and false promise. What the Dems will start to focus on and move towards is this issue because once progress has been made in Iraq (and this would happen in two regardless of the outcome of this election) there will still be the economy. The Dems aquired the power of the purse, but it is an empty purse and they will have their hands full trying to refill it. If they can provide oversight in Iraq and make headway with the budget (not necessarily the economy because that is very much effected by the previous Congress) then they will have a good '08 3. Conclusion: Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity! It's a good day to be a Dem. If you're a Dem go ahead and pat yourself on the back and celebrate, but when the day is done you've inherited a legislative mess and you asked for it. Roll up your sleeves and get to work because you'll be fighting six years of policy and unrestricted White House authority. You'll be fighting opposition from the right that doesn't want to look they can't do a job you can. You'll be fighting the left who wants to pull you away from what got you hear and abuse this stewardship for party gain. And most of all, you'll be fighting the inertia of a snowballing right agenda that has massive momentum. That's an Iraq policy that you wouldn't have done,but you're stuck with, an economy that is deep in the red, but you didn't put it there, and a social agenda that will need to be approached with the greatest of delicacy and temperance. Only time will tell if the Dems can control the Congress and control themselves long enough to possibily make change. They can if they have the will, let's see what they do. __________________ "The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751