My Midterm Analysis
Note: This is cut and pasted from my blog so take that into context before critiquing my verb usage or any facts out-dated by less than 12 hours. I'm posting here because I want to get a feel for how my fellow Tilted Politic-ers find my take on this election, as well as their conflicting takes.
<b>PLEASE help me keep this civil and educational.</b>
Alright, well it's past my Tuesday night bed time but anyone who knows me knew I wouldn't go to bed without results or the assurance that I won't miss a thing going to bed. Hell, I stayed up for 48 hours in 2000 waiting for Florida before I finally accepted that I wouldn't miss hearing about if I caught 40 winks.
That being said, let's get rolling. I'm not going to scream, gloat, or flaunt victory but I'd being lying if I didn't say I've been nothing but pleased so far. No surprises in the House, I think anyone paying attention over the last month knew the Dems were gonna take it. It was surprising the amount though. Not a single incumbet Democrat lost an election in the House, Senate, or for state Governor. Now that says something, but I'll get to that momentarily.
The Senate is huge! No matter what happens the Dems held all their seats and gained a good number. It will be a different Senate as the loss of moderate Republicans and addition of moderate Democrats will change the shape of many commitees. That good word aside, at this point I am very hopeful of a Democratic Senate. At this time the vote is still out in MO, MT, and VA but I would be shocked at lossing MO or MT. VA is huge and Florida-close. With the exception of major voting issues though a recount won't make a full percent of difference and it's likely that the provisional ballets (those that the voter thought should count, but in which there was uncertainty) would favor Webb. Knock on wood, but since all my calls have been right thus far I think we'll be taking the Senate as well.
Now ballot issues. This is what I find very interesting. By and large the nation agrees on these issues. Every minimum wage increase initiative won & every abortion restriction lost and these might be clues about why the Dems faired so well in Congressional elections. Gay marriage bans acrossed the board EXCEPT in Arizona where the 'ban gay marriage' amendment failed. This is the new civil rights topic and it's going to be very interesting to see what states go what way, or if SCOTUS will step in and end the disjunction. Pot legalization failed acrossed the board, but did anyone really think this would fly right now? This is a generational issue and it's still too soon. Give it ten years, but stop cluttering ballots with it in the mean time. The last two big issues are stem cells and official language. No surprise AZ went for the English initiative, but it'll be interesting to see if that issue spreads out of the Southwest to make it's way onto other ballots. As for stem cells, the last thing I saw was that the verdict was still out on this initiative. However, that is a new hot topic and if MO tells us anything (as an initiative and THE issue of the McCaskill (D) campaign) it's that it is going to be a major divisive issue in the coming years, right up there with abortion and the death penalty.
Summation: There's change in the air and it's an exciting time to be a Democrat. No matter how the Senate fairs, the overall jist of this election is that America is ready for some accountability on the economy and in Iraq. Does this mean that there is a liberal shift in this country? Doubtful. The Democrats taking seats are moderate and that is, perhaps, the message of this election. It's a move to the center and, right now, that is better represented by Democrats. These moderate Dems represent change, but not a polarizing change. Americans (both Republicans & Democrats) are fed up with the extreme right. What's going to be most telling about '08 elections is how the Democrats take it. They need to realize that this is NOT a mandate, but a chance. It's a chance to bring America back to the center, because as fed up as we are of the extreme right, we are equally afraid of the extreme left. If the Dems bring accountability to our government then we can talk mandate next cycle, but if we become opportunistic and abuse our chance to make things right by pushing an extreme liberal social agenda then '08 will be worse than '94. Let's hope we Democrats have learned some temperance in the last six years because this could be the dawning of a new day and we need to make something of it.
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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751
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