Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Time for an October Surprise ?....US Military Assets Assembling in the Persian Gulf

host · 10-22-2006, 09:53 PM

The following is the cover story, but now. with reports of 2 US carrier task force groups, USS Enterprise and USS Eisenhower, and the small carrier, Iwo Jima and it's Expeditionary Strike Group, as well as the 6,000-member U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Expeditionary Strike Group 5. all assembling imminemtly in the Persian Gulf, just 16 days before the US mid-term elections, and with ample domestic oil supplies and gasoline prices in the US at a cycle low, politically, it will be neccessary to strike Iran in the next few days. Postponing military operations against Iran until after the Nov. 7, elections, will trigger war concerns that will take back the boost in public opinion that republicans gained from the swift drop in gasoline prices recently, in record time.........+

Quote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...101101450.html
Naval interdiction exercise said planned for Gulf

Reuters
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; 6:28 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Facing nuclear disputes with Iran and North Korea, the United States, Bahrain and other states will hold their first naval exercise in the Gulf this month to practice interdicting ships carrying weapons of mass destruction and missiles, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.

The exercise is taking place as the United States and other major powers are considering sanctions including possible interdiction of ships on North Korea, following a reported nuclear test, and on Iran, which has defied a U.N. Security Council mandate to stop enriching uranium.

The exercise, set for October 31, is the 25th to be organized under the U.S.-led 66-member Proliferation Security Initiative and the first to be based in the Gulf near Bahrain, across from Iran, the officials said.

A senior U.S. official insisted the exercise is not aimed specifically at Iran, although it reinforces a U.S. strategy aimed at strengthening America's ties with states in the Gulf, where Tehran and Washington are competing for influence.

"It's an effort to bring a lot of Gulf states together to demonstrate resolve and readiness to act against proliferation," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The US MSM is mostly silent, probably due to threats from the US administration.

Polling results suck...on the eve of the mid-term elections:
http://www.pollingreport.com/terror.htm

One of two US carrier groups, the USS Enterprise, cannot remain in the Persian gulf indefinitely, it was scheduled to be relieved by the USS Eisenhower, due to arrive....right about now.

IMO, I think that junior's gonna pull the trigger on Iran...an October surprise.

Politcally and strategically, he's assembled this massive force in the Gulf, his party needs a sudden and dramatic political boost to hold the house and senate majorities in the November 7, elections.

So....what does he have to lose? I suspect that he will order massive air attacks on Iran, as soon as Oct. 25.

Quote:

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=3401

October 20, 2006, 12:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tuesday, Oct. 17, the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group steamed into the Persian Gulf to join the US naval, air and marine concentration piling up opposite Iran’s shores. It consists of the amphibious transport dock USS Nashville, the guided-missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, the attack submarine USS Albuquerque, and the dock landing ship USS Whidbey Island.

The Iwo Jima group is now cruising 60 km from Kuwait off Iran’s coast. As DEBKAfile and DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported exclusively two weeks ago, three US naval task forces will be in place opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea by October 21. The other two are the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group and the USS Enterprise Strike Group.

Quote:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/...midgett16.html
Saturday, September 16, 2006

Midgett crew ready to ship out
Cutter to leave for Persian Gulf today

By MIKE BARBER
P-I REPORTER

As the crew of the Coast Guard cutter Midgett made its final preparations Friday, stowing gear, working on the main deck in order to get under way for the Persian Gulf this morning, Petty Officer 2nd Class Casey Robert took on a special task.

Around his bed, he sentimentally taped nearly a dozen photos of his wife of four months, Kristiann. "We've been married since May 19," Robert, 24, said.

Nearby, Seaman Andrew Wright, 20, of Rochester, N.Y., embraced his girlfriend, Danni Owens, spending their last day together for the next 210 days.

The 378-foot high-endurance cutter based in Seattle leaves to join the 6,000-member U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Expeditionary Strike Group 5 heading to the war zone for a seven-month deployment......

Quote:

http://presszoom.com/story_119626.html
USS Iwo Jima Demonstrates Capabilities to Civilian Leaders
NORTH ARABIAN GULF, Oct. 18, 2006 – The USS Iwo Jima can unleash tremendous military force by air, land and sea, but the crew takes pride in offering something the ship’s captain says is equally important: the ability to reduce suffering and save lives.

.....Three football fields long, but shorter than an aircraft carrier, Iwo Jima and its 1,100 sailors provide the platform that delivers the 1,600 to 1,800 Marines it typically carries to any contingency in their region.

The ship carries 29 aircraft, including Marine Corps AV-8B “Harriers” that provide air defense and close-ground support, CH-53 “Super Stallions” and CH-46E “Sea Knight” that ferry troops and supplies and AH-1W “Super Cobras” that provide close-in air support.

In addition, the Iwo Jima’s Landing Craft Air Cushion is capable of delivering Marines along with their vehicles and equipment for an amphibious assault.

The JCOC participants got a firsthand look at these military capabilities, took a spin in an LCAC at speeds hitting 45 knots, and watch Harriers take off and land from Iwo Jima’s flight deck.

In addition to its combat capability, Iwo Jima contributes to the U.S. maritime mission in a way a traditional carrier simply can’t, Walley said. “We call a carrier a single-dimensional ship” that projects air power, he said. “This ship is multi-dimensional.”

Just over four months into its current deployment, USS Iwo Jima is once again demonstrating those multi-dimensional capabilities.

Since leaving Norfolk in early June, Iwo Jima already has helped evacuate 14,900 American citizens in Lebanon to safety before providing more traditional support to operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The ship is currently operating in the North Arabian Gulf, about 60 miles from the Kuwaiti coast.

Quote:

http://www.hnn.us/articles/31051.html
10-23-06
Moves toward War with Iran: Part 2
By William R. Polk

.....On October 2, a powerful naval battle group around the giant aircraft carrier Eisenhower sailed for the Persian Gulf and is due to arrive a week before the November Congressional elections to join a similar battle group led by the aircraft carrier Enterprise. Meanwhile aircraft of the U.S. Air Force are being readied in bases surrounding Iran and in distant locations. These forces could deliver destructive power that would dwarf the aerial assaults on Iraq.........

Quote:

http://www.opednews.com/articles/ope...f_the_pump.htm

.....Not everyone has attributed these U.S. interpretations to mere miscues. Long-serving UN diplomats have drawn parallels between the abovementioned maneuvers and U.S. efforts before the 2003 Iraq War to discredit the work of the IAEA. Other observers and military analysts picked up this theme in late September when the Pentagon announced that the USS Eisenhower battle group was heading for the Persian Gulf region where it would replace the USS Enterprise battle group in late October or early November. With two carrier battle groups just off Iran's coast, tensions would be higher and the possibility of confrontation-either intentional or accidental-greater than usual and just before the U.S. elections.

The United States has reportedly been running Special Forces operations in Iran for well over a year, gathering information and identifying key targets for a combined naval and air attack that a number of analysts believe Bush intends to launch, and the sooner the better from his perspective. But with more than 20,000 troops in Afghanistan and 140,000 in Iraq, with those in Iraq virtually hostage to Iraq's Shi'ite Badr Brigades and Madhi army should the United States attack Shi'a Iran, and with additional ground forces potentially needed to maintain control of Baghdad or to reinforce NATO forces in Afghanistan, the White House can ill-afford to commit ground forces in a much larger and more populous Iran that would no more welcome the United States as a liberator than did the Iraqis.

The issues of oil and Iran are, of course, linked. Should the markets come to believe-before the November 2006 elections-that war is imminent, oil prices will again soar and further erode the support among the voting public for the administration's congressional allies. Conversely, if nothing causes alarm and sanctions continue to be nothing more than irritants, the Iranians conceivably could master the technical impediments and forge ahead with their nuclear program. The question is whether they would stop enrichment at levels suitable only for energy or press ahead to levels necessary for weapons.

Time Running Out?

As the elections approach, the administration's interpretation of Iran's activities deserves closer scrutiny. Iran is not so much defying the international community, as the administration alleges, but defying the U.S. interpretation of the international community's positions. Its development of nuclear energy can be monitored sufficiently to detect and significantly retard, if not prevent, development of a nuclear weapon in the short to medium time frame. More generally, negotiations are possible if the interests of each party are not summarily dismissed as illegitimate......

Quote:

http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_En...348809585&par=
IRAN: TEHRAN FEARS U.S. ATTACK

Tehran, 11 Oct. (AKI) - Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has held an emergency meeting after reports that US nuclear powered aircraft carrier Eisenhower was moving towards the Persian Gulf. Khamenei met on Tuesday night with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and, the head of the Iranian army and the revolutionary guards corps Pasdaran, Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, along with advisors to Khamenei.

During the talks, Iranian online daily Roozonline reports, participants discussed the possibility of a US military attack and the consequences of potential sanctions on Iran.

According to Roozonline, Khamenei stressed the need to present a united Iranian front to the international community.

The Eisenhower is expected to reach the Persian Gulf on 21 October while another US aircraft carrier, the Enterprise, will also be allegedly close to the Iranian coasts. The Enterprise was employed in 2001 by the United States to bomb Afghanistan after the September 11 terror attacks on the US.

According to Baztab, a website controlled by the Pasdaran, "the United States is gaining positions in the sea and countries close to Iran in case the Pentagon wants to launch an attack on the Islamic Republic."

According to Baztab, the US has already drafted a plan to attack Iranian nuclear plants and its military installations by sea and air.

US president has not ruled out the possibility of a military attack against Iran if it continues to pursue its nuclear programme which it fears is aimed at building nuclear weapons. Washington is currently pressing the Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran for its repeated refusal to halt sensitive nuclear work.

Baztab also said that "if the presence of US navy ships in the Persian Gulf turned into a real threat for the Islamic Republic then the region's oil pipeline would explode, as would mines in the Hormuz Strait (a key shipping route for oil) when oil tankers pass through so as to make the price of oil double or triple."

Iran is the world's fourth largest crude oil producer.

Quote:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff
posted September 21, 2006 (web only)
War Signals?

Dave Lindorff

....[Retired] Colonel Gardiner, who has taught military strategy at the National War College [of the United States], says that the [U.S. Navy] carrier deployment and a scheduled Persian Gulf arrival date of October 21 [2006] is "very important evidence" of war planning. He says, "I know that some naval forces have already received 'prepare to deploy orders' [PTDOs], which have set the date for being ready to go as October 1 [2006]. Given that it would take about from October 2 to October 21 to get those forces to the [Persian] Gulf region, that looks about like the date" of any possible military action against Iran. (A PTDO means that all crews should be at their stations, and ships and planes should be ready to go, by a certain date--in this case, reportedly, October 1.) Gardiner notes, "You cannot issue a PTDO and then stay ready for very long. It's a very significant order, and it's not done as a training exercise." This point was also made in the Time article.

(...)

"I think the plan's been picked: bomb the nuclear sites in Iran," says [Colonel] Gardiner. "It's a terrible idea, it's against U.S. law and it's against international law, but I think they've decided to do it." Gardiner says that while the United States has the capability to hit those sites with its cruise missiles, "the Iranians have many more options than we [the United States] do.

(...)

Of course, Gardiner agrees, recent ship movements and other signs of military preparedness could be simply a bluff designed to show toughness in the bargaining with Iran over its nuclear program. But with the Iranian coast reportedly armed to the teeth with Chinese Silkworm anti-ship missiles, and possibly even more sophisticated Russian anti-ship weapons, against which the [U.S.] Navy has little reliable defenses, it seems unlikely the Navy would risk high-value assets like aircraft carriers or cruisers with such a tactic. Nor has bluffing been a Bush [Administration] MO [tactic] to date.13......

Quote:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...535817,00.html
From the Magazine | Cover
What Would War Look Like?
A flurry of military maneuvers in the Middle East increases speculation that conflict with Iran is no longer quite so unthinkable. Here's how the U.S. would fight such a war--and the huge price it would have to pay to win it
By MICHAEL DUFFY

Posted Sunday, Sep. 17, 2006
The first message was routine enough: a "Prepare to Deploy" order sent through naval communications channels to a submarine, an Aegis-class cruiser, two minesweepers and two mine hunters. The orders didn't actually command the ships out of port; they just said to be ready to move by Oct. 1. But inside the Navy those messages generated more buzz than usual last week when a second request, from the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), asked for fresh eyes on long-standing U.S. plans to blockade two Iranian oil ports on the Persian Gulf. The CNO had asked for a rundown on how a blockade of those strategic targets might work. When he didn't like the analysis he received, he ordered his troops to work the lash up once again.

What's going on? The two orders offered tantalizing clues. There are only a few places in the world where minesweepers top the list of U.S. naval requirements. And every sailor, petroleum engineer and hedge-fund manager knows the name of the most important: the Strait of Hormuz, the 20-mile-wide bottleneck in the Persian Gulf through which roughly 40% of the world's oil needs to pass each day. Coupled with the CNO's request for a blockade review, a deployment of minesweepers to the west coast of Iran would seem to suggest that a much discussed--but until now largely theoretical--prospect has become real: that the U.S. may be preparing for war with Iran.

No one knows whether--let alone when--a military confrontation with Tehran will come to pass. The fact that admirals are reviewing plans for blockades is hardly proof of their intentions. The U.S. military routinely makes plans for scores of scenarios, the vast majority of which will never be put into practice. "Planners always plan," says a Pentagon official. Asked about the orders, a second official said only that the Navy is stepping up its "listening and learning" in the Persian Gulf but nothing more--a prudent step, he added, after Iran tested surface-to-ship missiles there in August during a two-week military exercise. And yet from the State Department to the White House to the highest reaches of the military command, there is a growing sense that a showdown with Iran--over its suspected quest for nuclear weapons, its threats against Israel and its bid for dominance of the world's richest oil region--may be impossible to avoid. The chief of the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), General John Abizaid, has called a commanders conference for later this month in the Persian Gulf--sessions he holds at least quarterly--and Iran is on the agenda.....