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I would say TBC will be a Thanksgiving release short of something unexpected going horribly wrong, in which case it'll be delayed until Q1 2007, though that'd be catastrophically bad for blizzard. There's not much left in the game at this point and there are no new content patches to carry people forward if TBC meets with serious delays. There's still plenty of testing to be done, but I'd think it's very safe to guess that the game is about 2 months out.
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