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Originally Posted by hiredgun
1) the Israeli position, particularly with regard to security as Israel's primary concern
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Israel knew what it was doing. I am almost certian their intention was to prevent Lebanon from becoming a peaceful, non-extreemist state. You see Israel can't control Lebanon if it becomes peaceful. Hezbollah was losing it's standing in the minds of the Lebanese people. Their economy was growing. Lebanon was going to be something of an example for other extreemist states in the region. Israel wouldn't have that, so when the Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, instead of doing a prisoner exchange like normal they decided to go to war. They fought the Hezbollah, Hezbollah gained back a great deal of support, and now we have a Lebanon with a South that is in ruins, the people are pissed as hell at Israel, and I'll bet that Hezbollah gains back a lot of political power after this, and that foriegn policy in Lebanon shifts back to a more extreemist view. So long peaceful Lebanon, hello Israeli dominance in the region.
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Originally Posted by hiredgun
2) Hizbullah. Factors to consider include their Lebanese, Arab, and international standings; their position vis-a-vis the Lebanese state and body politic; and their fighting ability.
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Their fighting ability was claerly underestimated. It never ceases to amaze me how nations with technologically advanced militaries assume that they can mow down less technologically advances militaries or militias. That's not how it works. Look in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq. Now, as stated above, the Hezbollah will regain a lot of political power that they were losing to more peaceful leaders. Lebanon will deevolve.
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Originally Posted by hiredgun
4) the United States and the discourse of the global war on terror
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Once the next elections are over and the Hezbollah gains back more control, the US will declair it a terrorist state, and i will die a little on the inside.
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Originally Posted by hiredgun
An additional issue is whether this round of the conflict is truly over or only momentarily paused; Hizbullah remains on the ground, and the IDF remains in parts of South Lebanon.
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This is a momentary breather between rounds. It will only get worse as time goes on. If Lebanon were to be left alone, the Hezbollah would destroy itself. Most of the Lebanese know that the Hezbollah are to radical to be benificial. The Hezbollah were headed towards obscurity and thus oblivion.
Not so anymore.