One point adding to the difficulty of the search is that the currently available search methods will only find intelligent life that happened to be broadcasting signals into space during the very small window we have been around (so far) to receive them (taking into account the time that must pass while the signals travel to us - so they could be long dead by the time we hear them)
That's not to say they don't exist, but it makes them less likely to be found by us (short of interstellar archaeology - how cool would that be??)
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Originally Posted by willravel
You've illustrated my point exactly. Because we have no idea what life looks like, acts like, or requires elsewhere, it's absurd to try and create equations about extraterrestrial life. Imagine if I were to say, "Well, there is life on 1 out of 8 planets in our solar system, therefore every 1 out of 8 planets in the universe has life". That's how I see the Drake Equation. It's massively simplistic, assumes a great deal, and only has the tiny perspective of our little planet and solar system. It's like asking a 2 year old who just learned basic math (1+1=2) to explain advanced calculus.
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Again, in fairness to the Drake equation - I don't think many would argue that it can accurately predict the number of planets with intelligent life. Rather it is a tool to show how even low probability events - given a broad enough sample size - will result in significant numbers of hits.
As to being simplistic and assuming a great deal, that is probably true. However, I would suggest you look at the variables in the equation. Again, not looking at it as a predictive tool, I am hard pressed to add variables they did not think of. If anything, I would be deleting variables (e.g., it is based on an assumption that life must arise on planets, which may not be true, if I know my Star Trek
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Obviously, each individual variable itself has dozens of underlying variables. For example, in order to reach the variable for the number of planets capable of sustaining life you would technically need to come up with an equation solving for the number of planets that would have whatever you think it necessary to sustain life. They "skip to the end" by asking you to plug in the answer rather than try to actually work out how you get there.