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Originally Posted by Ustwo
Well Liberman could have run as a moderate/liberal Republican prior to his waffling in 2000 and 2004 trying to appease the left wing. So I think you are correct in that Liberman won't be running with McCain unless McCain jumps ship. Had Liberman stuck to his principles he would be in a far better possition now, though he may still well be a senator come the election.
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Given that it's 2006, whatever waffling did in prior cycles is pretty much irrelevant when it comes to national politics, especially since his national career is now pretty much dead. He'll never get the backing of the national party to run for President, and anyone who picked him as a running mate would have real problems with the party organization as well - not to mention that Joe's not above sticking a knife in the back of his friends when it's convenient (see: Al Gore, Bill Clinton, John Kerry).
The rumor that I hear is that if Lieberman wins, he's going to try to rejoin the Democrats in some way. Since it's bascially a rift on the state level, it's possible. As far as his vote in the Senate goes, he was never a true loyalist, so I don't expect it will matter one way or the other.
And I'll be moderately surprised if he doesn't win re-election.