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Old 08-14-2006, 05:50 AM   #4 (permalink)
The_Jazz
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I've been staying out of Politics recently because of some of the rhetoric, but I can't resist this one, especially since it lets me put on my "history hat" again. I think that there are two interesting points here that are being overlooked - 1) a sitting senator hasn't been elected to the Presidency since 1960 when Kennedy just beat out Nixon. That's 48 years, and lots of senators have run since then. It seems to me that the Democrats should look elsewhere, like the various governors' mansions around the country. That's #2 - the 4 of the last 5 (W, Clinton, Reagan, Carter) have come directly from a state government into the national government. The sole exception is George HW Bush, who's interesting because he was the first Vice President elected in his own right in at least 60 years (at the time). It's pretty obvious that Cheney won't run, so that puts the obvious choices in either the Senate or a governor's mansion. Sorry, but I can't imagine a Congressman getting out of the primary since I don't think that's ever happened.

The Senators have been jockying for position for a year or so now, and I think we're all familiar with who the players are there. Here's my short list of who I personally expect to see step up as national players in the next 6 months or so.

Bill Richardson - New Mexico - Hispanic, which is very attractive to the national party but may have woman problems which kept him out of Kerry's campaign.

Tom Vilsack - Iowa - interesting enough got his start in politics when someone murdered a friend of mine's father who was mayor of Mt. Pleasant, IA. Pretty popular among my Iowa friends.

Rod Blagojevich - Illinios - Has too many problems in IL to mount a real race, especially considering that his father-in-law, a huge power in the state, reportedly now hates him. Re-election as governor isn't by any means assured.

Mike Easley - North Carolina - probably has too many tobacco problems (read: ethics) for the national stage

Ed Rendell - Pennsylvania - if he wins re-election this year, he'll probably run. Either he or Richardson are probably the most electable. Rendell is a former mayor (Philadelphia) and prosecutor, so he's fairly immune from the accusations of being "soft".

Phil Bredesen - Tennesee - a long shot, but could run if he wins re-election this year.

Tim Kaine - Virginia - reportedly has long aspired to the White House, but probably doesn't have the national backing to make it, although he's really popular in VA. Doesn't have enough friends in the national party organization.

Joe Manchin - West Virginia - another dark horse to run, but got a lot of attention after the Sego mine disaster. If he was from a larger state, he might make a good running mate but most likely destined for a cabinet office if a Democrat wins in '08.

As I mentioned, these are just my personal thoughts and shouldn't be taken as any more than that. I might have missed a few (and probably did), but I know of at least 2 that have talked to the national party about running and started soliciting national help. Iowa will again be a very interesting place politically next year.

Since Hillary is a separat topic, I'll post my thoughts on her separately. She's too controversial a figure to run a national campaign. Her problem isn't her vagina (to be crass), although being a woman certainly doesn't help, but the fact that she's polarized people. There aren't that many people out there who are on the fence about her - you either love her or hate her. People that won't vote for her because she's a woman probably wouldn't vote for her because of her politics. She's the later day version of Strom Thurmond of the 50's since both had their grassroots support and little else.

Nominating Hillary is a terrifically bad idea for the Democrats, and I don't know if her running in this cycle is a good idea either. She should wait until 2012 or 2016 and start reaching out to other parts of the pary.
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Last edited by The_Jazz; 08-14-2006 at 05:56 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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