I guess neither I nor anyone else really knows what will happen, and the expansion isn't coming out tomorrow, so who knows. I might change my mind.
I think, however, that blizzard is trying to fix a mistake by making another mistake because it's the easier solution.
Blizzard blew it by releasing Dire Maul and then releasing BWL, ZG, world dragons, AQ20/40 and Naxx and not doing anything for small-man content except the dungeon 2 set with limited success. It sucked for everyone because it created a severe split in the community between raiders and non-raiders and it villified raiders who did enjoy the content because they were constantly defending it against non-raiders who told us our play style sucked. Since no one on the official boards can carry on a reasonable conversation, everyone acted like 10 year olds and fought.
What most people (raiders, casuals, non-raiders, etc.) wanted from the expansion was more content and a smaller gear discrepancy. I was hoping for difficult 5/10/20/40 man content with an ilvl gap between the 5 man and the 40 man of around 5-10 ilvls instead of the ridiculous 20-30 ilvls now. It provides higher rewards for the coordination and time involved in 20 and 40 man content, but doesn't leave people who don't like that behind to rot. Most raiders like smaller content too, as we all have closer friend in our guilds that it will be cool to hang out with without the pressures of being in the main vent channel with everyone screaming at each other during a 40 man raid.
Blizzard created the 40 man raid and they nurtured it. Shit, less than two months ago, they released the longest and most complicated 40 man raid in their history. 5 40 man raids have been released into WoW. That created a social community of guilds built around populating and balancing 40 person raid groups. Every time they released new 40 man content, they reinforced the guild structures designed with that content in mind. Now, abruptly, they're eviscerating that entire playstyle in some bizarre compromise.
I don't contend that 40 is a magic number or the requisite number for creating epic, difficult battles, but BLIZZARD made 40 the magic number and for two years people have relied on that number in the hundreds upon hundreds of hours people have put into creating guilds and loot systems to conquer the content that blizzard released.
25 is a much more accessible size for raids. It is without question easier to coordinate 25 people and will allow these raids to be experienced by many more people. However, the time to make such a paradigmatic shift was not two years into it when hundreds of thousands of people have put time and effort into making 40 man raids-and their support structure, guilds-function effectively.
Guilds either are going to be doing some major downsizing (which sucks, and ought to suck for many obvious reasons) or they're going to have to deal with the logistical nightmare of running two raids. The difference between running multiple progression raids and multiple farm raids cannot be emphasized enough. How do you split the guild? How do you deal with raid ID problems? What if group A has too many tanks and not enough healers and group B has too much DPS and not enough tanks? Do you impair progress in the interest of fairness or do you make an elite group and a second-string group? How do you handle all the drama that will come out of splitting people like that?
Like it or not, two years of social engineering have been put into making 40 man raids work. Blizzard is giving all of that effort the finger, and it sucks.
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