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Ustwo · 07-19-2006, 08:17 AM

While I can't find a transcript of Hawkings talk, the quotes I could find made it clear he was talking in far more general terms than 'we will be extinct in 100 years if we don't go into space.'

Really nothing will 'destroy' the human race outside of a cosmic type disaster, be it something predicted like an asteroid strike or something hypothetical like getting to close to a mini-blackhole. The earth may be a far less friendly place to live, even billions may die, but mankind has survived iceages, we can handle the next 100 years.

I think he is thinking this is more of a breaking point in history, where if we don't start finding solutions, things will be to chaotic in the future to do so.

Personally I think the gist of what he is saying is correct, I think his time frame is rather arbitrary though, and picked more for impact than substance. Hawkings knows how to self promote and work the press. If he said 500 years, thats too long for most people to worry about. If he said 50 years thats too short, people remember 50 years and the problems we had during that time which seemed horrible but worked out, so he says 100. Short enough to put a bit of panic in there and get the press attention, short enough to think about your childrens life time, long enough to give some wiggle room.

07-19-2006, 08:17 AM	#11 (permalink)
Ustwo Pissing in the cornflakes	While I can't find a transcript of Hawkings talk, the quotes I could find made it clear he was talking in far more general terms than 'we will be extinct in 100 years if we don't go into space.' Really nothing will 'destroy' the human race outside of a cosmic type disaster, be it something predicted like an asteroid strike or something hypothetical like getting to close to a mini-blackhole. The earth may be a far less friendly place to live, even billions may die, but mankind has survived iceages, we can handle the next 100 years. I think he is thinking this is more of a breaking point in history, where if we don't start finding solutions, things will be to chaotic in the future to do so. Personally I think the gist of what he is saying is correct, I think his time frame is rather arbitrary though, and picked more for impact than substance. Hawkings knows how to self promote and work the press. If he said 500 years, thats too long for most people to worry about. If he said 50 years thats too short, people remember 50 years and the problems we had during that time which seemed horrible but worked out, so he says 100. Short enough to put a bit of panic in there and get the press attention, short enough to think about your childrens life time, long enough to give some wiggle room. __________________ Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.