07-17-2006, 08:06 PM
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#160 (permalink)
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Watcher
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Check this out: You gotta love the BBC for facts:
Quote:
Q&A: Middle East crisis
The Middle East has been plunged again into an escalating crisis. The BBC News website's Tarik Kafala looks at the key issues.
How did the current crisis start?
The Hezbollah raid into Israel, in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed and two were captured, was a stunning and provocative attack.
Lebanese soldier near Beirut's international airport
Lebanon has seen the first Israeli land incursion since 2000
Some have argued that Hezbollah wanted to test new Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is an unknown quantity as far as military crises go.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nassrallah has said that the soldiers were captured to pressure Israel to release the thousands of Palestinian prisoners in its jails.
The raid is clearly a gesture of solidarity towards the Palestinian militants in Gaza who have been holding an Israeli soldier since 25 June.
Hezbollah may also have had an eye on its own situation in Lebanon where there has been increasing pressure for it to disarm.
How has Israel reacted?
The result of the raid is that Israel is fighting on two fronts. Israeli officials have cast the Hezbollah raid as an act of war and responded with air strikes, shelling and a sea blockade, threatening operations that will "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years".
The aim seems to be, as in Gaza, to build up massive pressure on the Lebanese government and the Lebanese population. Civilian casualties in Lebanon have been high and the damage to civilian infrastructure wide-ranging.
The Israeli strikes on targets other that Hezbollah installations are at least in part punitive - power installations, roads and the international airport have been hit.
This has drawn some international criticism and calls for restraint, but Israel is unlikely to care too much about the criticism while Israelis are being killed by Hezbollah rocket fire into Israel.
What can the Lebanese government do about the situation?
Ordinary Lebanese may well be the main victims. The country is dealing with an Israeli land invasion for the first time since 2000, when Israel ended a 22-year occupation of the south.
Israel has made it absolutely clear that it holds the Lebanese government responsible for the kidnapping of its soldiers by Hezbollah.
Many analysts see this as unfair.
Even though Hezbollah is operating from Lebanese territory and the militant group has two ministers in the Lebanese government, central government is almost powerless to influence the militant group.
It is the Hezbollah militia that is deployed in southern Lebanon, not the Lebanese army.
The group is also very popular in Lebanon and highly respected for its political activities, social services and its military record against Israel.
Most Lebanese may believe that Hezbollah's capture of the two Israeli soldiers is deeply irresponsible. There is anger that the country is again being pitched towards war, but this is unlikely to translate into widespread anger towards Hezbollah.
Is there any way out of this crisis?
Israeli officials have insisted that there will be no direct negotiation with Hezbollah or Hamas over the return of its soldiers, and no Palestinian prisoner releases.
In the past, Israel has negotiated with Hezbollah and released hundreds of prisoners, but Israeli officials are now talking about a changed situation and new rules.
In both Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli military appears to be taking advantage of the crisis to damage Hezbollah and Hamas as military organisations.
All sides are for now taking hardline positions, but it's difficult to see how the Israelis are going to get their soldiers back without some kind of ceasefire followed by negotiations that will almost certainly involve prisoner releases.
Will the conflict spread?
We're not yet at the stage of a regional conflict.
Much will depend on whether Israel extends its military operations to take in Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's sponsors and supporters. Officials have already laid much of the blame for the escalating crisis on Damascus and Tehran.
Iran and Syria are also the states that can influence Hezbollah more than anyone else.
Inevitably the role of the US, in restraining Israel and pushing the various parties towards some kind of ceasefire may at some later date be crucial.
Washington's stance in its "war on terror" may mean that its contacts with Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah, and its ability to influence them, may be limited.
The first signs of an international diplomatic intervention emerged when the UN's Kofi Annan and British PM Tony Blair called for the deployment of an international force in Lebanon.
But this may be some way off, if it gets off the ground at all.
Meanwhile, questions surrounding the disarmament of Hezbollah, as demanded by the UN Security Council, have been pushed way into the background for now. As are Mr Olmert's big plans for disengaging from parts of the West Bank.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5180202.stm
willravel: I didn't address you directly in any of my comments. I don't know what you are, nor am I qualified to say so. I don't intened to comment on you directly either.
What I mean by that is, I'm not trying nor wanting to get in a one-on-one arguement.
__________________
I can sum up the clash of religion in one sentence:
"My Invisible Friend is better than your Invisible Friend."
Last edited by billege; 07-17-2006 at 08:35 PM..
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