I think thats naive to assume that since Microsoft is new to the platform industry that he's going to go down.
You all seem to forget that when Sony introduced the PS to the market, we all went "WTF?" and wondered what the hell Sony was thinkin trying to get in the fray with Nintendo and Sega. Sega owned the market with its Genesis system. Little did we know that 2 generations later, they were going to throw in the towel.
We all cant forget that Microsoft has impressive assets to back it up, much like Sony. A large contributor of Sony's success was also its agressive marketing tactics (thanks to its previous experience of being a major force in the electronics market). Sega quickly followed suit. Soon the US was soaking in a barrage of "shock-advertisments". Microsoft not only has resources, marketing and electronics (computer components, more importantly), Its certainly not going to go down without a fight.
Although, this isnt saying that Microsoft has the next defining console, none are (with the exception of the GameBoy for the handheld market). I'm just saying that its near impossible to know at this moment.
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