I'll read your links when I get off of work - but I do have one immediate thought.
I have a feeling that the issue of diminishing returns works in reverse - that as that approval figure gets lower and lower, it will take exponentially larger bad news or energy to turn supporters into doubters. Below 31%, you're probably starting to talk about people who are supporters of the Republican party in ways that transcend any particular president's accomplishments or foibles. That's tough to chip into.
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Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam
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