The US would not be convincing them to be more "conservative". This is a country that is very hardline and rigid in operation. Their last elections had over 1800 people stripped out of elected office or ballot because the "Overlord Council" (Clerics) thought they didn't fit the Sharian mold. From what I understand there is a very strong, young, dissident movement, very active which is nice; at the same time this a very hardline country so it is not as mainstream or strong, has zero influence, but it least it isn't what Saddam's Iraq was.
They would not "attack" Iraq persay; there is no doubt that they have agents working in Iraq. Iraqs majority population is Shiite, just like Iran, that's one of the main reasons Saddam went to war with Iran in the 80's. I would imagine if the US pulled out there would be a lebanon/Syria dynamic where Baghdad would be controlled by Tehran.
As for Nuclear strikes goes. The President Ahmadinejad is a NUTBAR, he believes himself personally is to usher in the muslim eqivilent of the Rapture/Armageddon, and is to bring death against the Zionists; beyond that he is completely delusional of reality, I don't know how many people here recall him and his speech that "enthralled" the delegates of the world when he was surrounded in blue light in a speech before the UN general assembly. This guy is a fanatic on par with terrorists, he was one of the people involved in the Embassy raid I believe, I think his convictions would make him unstable to the point where he would use Nukes. What is funny is, I've heard rumors in the media that the Ayatollah and the OVerlords have attempted to have him killed because he is too hardcore; like he is a bad poker player, the whole regime has the same agenda, but his application of it is too much for them.
Your premise about 1984 and never ending wars is nothing new, Machiavelli was big on the same concept. I don't think it is the same case, Iran is a hot button issue for a plethora of reasons when it comes to policy, not saying war is warranted or is even going to happen, but as far as policy goes, it is a possibility.
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To win a war you must serve no master but your ambition.
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