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You're both probably right that McCain will try to move back to the center if he wins the primary. However, while it's true that voters have short memory spans, I also expect McCain's opponents to bring up his flip-flopping throughout the campaign. He's obviously the front-runner and it's likely that his fellow Republicans will be gunning for him early.
As far as the Democrats, I think Hillary would be one of the weakest candidates. She's hated by both the left and the right and I don't think women are going to come out in force for her. I think Warner and Edwards are the strongest candidates. Feingold could also be strong if he managed to move more to the center, but that will be difficult. He will be a factor in the primary, no matter what.
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