roachboy

it is really hard to answer that as a function of many factors--the hopeless intertwining of information and marketing of war, for example--for example, in the past couple weeks i remember reading that an edict had come down requiring that hosptials stop counting execution style deaths as a seperate category. this has obvious effects on the organization of information, which in turn makes all murky and most efforts to extend what you think is happening in the present toward some plausible outcome wobbly undertakings at best.

if the americans are finding themselves reduced to a faction amongst others in a civil war, then plausible outcomes are all quite bleak in the shorter run.

given the bizarre duplication of saddam hussein's ruling style by the occupation forces (see the closed thread on torture in iraq for information behind this--amongst other things) then it seems to me that any attempt to form a viable government is doomed so long as the occupation continues.

if there is a civil war and the americans decide to cut their losses and pull out, i dont know what the outcome would look like.

i can see a way out if the administration would accept the short-term political humiliation of asking another organization--perhaps the un--to enter the situation and they rolled out of it in a rational manner, simply because it would switch the signs around and maybe create a neutral 3rd party that would be in a position to navigate all this---but i do not know if the un would be in a position to do it, and even if they were, whether this administration is capable of eating that level of--um---crow.

perhaps another organization could be enlisted, but i cant think of one off the top of my head, really---nato is an american puppet, and so would do no good...it would seem that some kind of ad hoc coalition would have to be formed, but i dont see anyone lining up to do it. i suppose the americans could engender the process that would be required and then get out of the way, but again, i dont see it happening with this administration in power.

sometimes it seems like incompetence opens onto situations that offer no obvious way out---sometimes nothing can save a situation.
maybe it has to be allowed to play out to some unforseeable conclusion on its own.

i dont see any of the proposals coming from the administration or the right being viable simply because the way the arguments are set up--that is the information that is admitted and that which is excluded--make all seem to me little more than pipedreams.

so i dont know.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite