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ubertuber · 03-19-2006, 07:39 PM

Despite what the Bush administration is saying, this is a null question if we persist in thinking in terms of the short-term. Hell, we've still got military bases in Germany and Japan - and those are our notable nation-building successes. Even economic/infrastuctural reform would be a challenge to complete within 3 years, and that doesn't address the political/ethnic/religious component. There was no reason other than wishful thinking to believe that we'd be in and out of Iraq in anything less than 5-7 years with a positive result. That said, I think in that 5-7 year timeframe, the prospects are still decent, as long as we manage to make positive steps on multiple fronts in Iraq.

Politicophile, you've made some great points about the true complexity of the situation in Iraq. However, if Iraq is anything like Afghanistan was in the 80's, the cult of personality that surrounds the charismatic leaders within the sects you described makes the situation much less predictable and much more volatile. In other words I'm not disagreeing with you - I'm saying that your point is valid and doesn't go far enough.

03-19-2006, 07:39 PM	#6 (permalink)
ubertuber spudly Location: Ellay	Despite what the Bush administration is saying, this is a null question if we persist in thinking in terms of the short-term. Hell, we've still got military bases in Germany and Japan - and those are our notable nation-building successes. Even economic/infrastuctural reform would be a challenge to complete within 3 years, and that doesn't address the political/ethnic/religious component. There was no reason other than wishful thinking to believe that we'd be in and out of Iraq in anything less than 5-7 years with a positive result. That said, I think in that 5-7 year timeframe, the prospects are still decent, as long as we manage to make positive steps on multiple fronts in Iraq. Politicophile, you've made some great points about the true complexity of the situation in Iraq. However, if Iraq is anything like Afghanistan was in the 80's, the cult of personality that surrounds the charismatic leaders within the sects you described makes the situation much less predictable and much more volatile. In other words I'm not disagreeing with you - I'm saying that your point is valid and doesn't go far enough. __________________ Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam Last edited by ubertuber; 03-19-2006 at 07:42 PM..