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Originally Posted by Charlatan
The problem is that the US created a power vacuum when they removed Saddam. The populace isn't ready for democracy... as they don't seem to respect the outcome of elections the way we do here in the west (US election 2000 aside).
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I find this attitude somewhat paternalistic. Iraqi voter turnout in the recent elections has been as high or higher than that in the United States. There were irregularities and a few instances of violence and intimidation, but even the elections' biggest critics had to admit that the process went very smoothly. Given this history, I don't understand what it would mean for the Iraqi people to not be "ready for democracy".
Generally speaking, the war in Iraq is already over. The insurency will continue to regenerate so long as the U.S. is still in Iraq, but they are small enough now that it will not be possible to topple the government.
The real danger is that another war will begin if the political process breaks down: an Iraqi Civil War. However, I find even this possibility unlikely because of the multiple alliances held by many prominent Iraqis. The American media absolutely adores the view that all Iraqis are either Sunni, Shiite, or Kurd. Unfortunately, that division doesn't tell the whole story. Most obviously, Kurds are almost entirely Sunnis, but they also oppose Ba'athist sympathizers (also Sunnis) because of the genocides of the 1980's and 90's. Sunnis are further divided into many political parties, some secular, some devoutly religious. Likewise, Shia vary greatly in their religiousness. Long story short: there is no "us" and there is no "them", so there will not be civil war.
In the short term, however, (timeframes are reasonably meaningless, but I'm thinking 3-5 years) government will make little progress because the extremely fractured nature of the electorate will make compromise more difficult. This will result in some need for continued U.S. presence, although it seems likely that fewer and fewer troops will be needed.
I, for one, appreciated the irony of war protests held on the third anniversary of the liberation of Iraq, the time when it became clear that the insurgency had already lost.