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I have to go for the complexity choice. It's a mess, certainly, but almost inevitable with numerous radical groups trying to build kingdoms.
At what point does the chaos become "civil war?" I'd expect a wider involvement of citizenry participating in the conflict, and in ways other than being blown up at social gatherings. It still seems like a small minority of Iraqis, a bunch of foreign fighters, and a nasty group of leaders tormenting the general population. Prodding them toward war. If the larger population unites and begins fighting back then perhaps I'd call it war. The current action, which most frequently target civilians rather than military or police, fits more with terrorism than war.
That said, they may be on the cusp. The last few days have sucked with a vengeance.
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There are a vast number of people who are uninformed and heavily propagandized, but fundamentally decent. The propaganda that inundates them is effective when unchallenged, but much of it goes only skin deep. If they can be brought to raise questions and apply their decent instincts and basic intelligence, many people quickly escape the confines of the doctrinal system and are willing to do something to help others who are really suffering and oppressed." -Manufacturing Consent: Noam Chomsky and the Media, p. 195
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