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Originally Posted by Ustwo
From looking at a lot of polling before the last election, I really do think they are all crap. How you ask a question, what questions you ask, and who is willing to take the time to respond play a big part, and often the correction factors use VERY fuzzy logic.
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That kind of polling is much more subjective, yes. First off, a poll is worth absolutely *nothing* if you don't have access to what exact questions were asked, what conditions, etc. Also, polls that are of higher quality have multiple controls. For example, polls recording trends over long periods of time ask the same question over, literally decades. Anyone who takes a class on statistics will tell you that statistics can be manipulated, but they will also appreciate that statistics are not worthless and, with the right information available, it is possible to gauge just how much certain statistics are worth. There are entire classes dedicated to the science of polling, especially in poilitical science departments. LOTS of polling is done poorly. It doesn't mean polling is inherently bad, it means that you need to put more effort into assessing polls to decide what they're worth. And, like statistics, it means that you need to look at multiple sources because nothing is perfect.