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I thought that Crash was alright. I thought it was a bit cartoony and I definitely don't think that it was Best Picture material. I think that Brokeback Mountain will win, but I don't think that it was a Best Picture either.
I think that there is a difference between "Best Picture" and what I would call "Best Film". "Best Pictures" tend to have a certain feel, like Forrest Gump. "Best Films" I consider to be the best film of a current year, like Pulp Fiction which lost Best Picture to Forrest Gump. "Best Pictures" tend to be studio films, or at least have a studio feel to them. They tend to be well-made, but don't push the envelope much. For me, "Best Films" are films that challenge both the average viewer and other film makers to think differently about the medium.
An interesting tidbit about the Best Picture Noms: None of them have made as much money as one of the Best Documentary Noms (March of the Penguins).
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