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Originally Posted by Elphaba
Just the constitutional scholar I had hoped would respond here! Good to see you back! 
I would be extremely interested in your views on how you think the court will act with the addition of Alito. |
"Constitutional scholar" is a title I am certainly not qualified to hold. Even so, I can sketch a brief outline of how the Court will function with the addition of Alito.
The new Court, roughly from liberal to conservative:
Ginsberg-Stevens-Breyer-Souter-Kennedy-Roberts-Alito-Scalia-Thomas
Obviously, there will be some debate about the exact positioning of the Justices, but this model is pretty accurate. Here's what to look for: Alito, although he is assuming the seat formerly held by O'Connor, is ideologically closer to Scalia and Rhenquist. In many respects, he is the spiritual successor to the former Chief. The real shift is the more moderate Roberts, who, despite being to the left of the hardcore conservatives, is obviously more consistently conservative than O'Connor ever was.
So, that bullet-proof 5-person conservative majority is made up of: Thomas, Scalia, Alito, and Roberts.
The only problem is...
There are only 4 solid conservatives on the Court.
The new swing vote is Kennedy, generally considered to be slightly right of center. What we are likely to see, then, is a return (in the ways that are still possible) to pre-1937 jurisprudence. The 10th amendment will once again be turned right-side-up and the Court will begin to conflict significantly more with Congress.
One final point: Alito has earned the interesting nickname "Scalito", indicating that his jurisprudence is very similar to that of the Court's other Italian. This might lead some to believe that Alito will become another Thomas, by which I mean another puppet for Scalia. This will not happen for two reasons:
1. Alito is significantly more intelligent and better qualified than Mr. Thomas.
2. The perception that Thomas serves merely as an extension of Scalia is very obviously disproven by SCOTUS precident. Take a look at Hamdi v. Rumsfeld if you don't believe me.
Overall effect of Alito confirmation: Court shifts to the right, with Kennedy becoming the new swing vote.
Roe will be upheld 5-4 at the very closest. Tune in in 2009 (at the very latest) when Stevens or Ginsberg step down. Will President Clinton nominate another jurist who believes the Constitution is alive and should be significantly expounded? Or will President McCain put Michael McConnell or one of his ideological peers on the bench? Only time will tell...