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Getting it.
Super Moderator
Location: Lion City
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Here is a Globe and Mail report on the poll:
Quote:
Link Tories now 10 points in front
By STEVEN CHASE
Wednesday, January 11, 2006 Posted at 5:11 AM EST
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
MONTREAL — The Conservatives are riding a wave of support that puts them on the verge of a majority government, the latest Strategic Counsel poll suggests, driven by surging fortunes in Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario outside the Greater Toronto Area.
Stephen Harper's Tories now have a 10-point lead over the Liberals -- their widest so far in the campaign -- with 38 per cent of the popular vote versus 28 per cent for Paul Martin's Liberals. NDP support has risen slightly, now standing at 16 per cent.
Polling conducted for The Globe and CTV by the Strategic Counsel shows Mr. Harper's party is on a roll in the eyes of Canadians, with the number soaring of respondents who feel the Tories have the momentum in the campaign.
The Conservatives are on the threshold of capturing seats in Quebec, a province that has been largely cool to the Tories for 13 years, as the province's support for the Bloc Québécois sags below 50 per cent for the first time in the campaign.
"I really do believe the Conservatives are on the precipice of a breakthrough here," Strategic Counsel chairman Allan Gregg said of Quebec.
Provincewide support for the Conservatives has risen to 22 per cent in Quebec, putting them ahead of the Liberals for the first time in Strategic Counsel's campaign polling. The Liberals have dropped to 19 per cent.
The Bloc Québécois has dropped to 48-per-cent support.
"Now the Conservatives are gaining at the expense of the Bloc Québécois," Mr. Gregg said.
Outside Montreal, the Tories are doing even better in Quebec. Polling shows they have 29 per cent of popular support, nearly three times what they started with, and far ahead of the Liberals, who stand at 13 per cent. The Bloc is at 51 per cent, down from a high of 61 per cent in the Dec. 12-21 period.
"They are right on the knife's edge of tipping seats," Mr. Gregg said.
Quebeckers also see the Tories gaining in momentum -- a trend that can be a precursor to a decisive shift in voter preference.
Fifty-four per cent of Quebec respondents said the Tories have the momentum in the campaign, up significantly from 47 per cent in the last polling period. The perception the Bloc has momentum has sagged to 22 per cent from a high of 51 per cent in mid-December, while the Liberals have further weakened to 10 per cent.
"The viability of the Bloc as a protest vote has declined as their momentum has been lost and it's now shifting over to the Conservatives," Mr. Gregg said.
"As more and more Quebeckers come to believe the Conservatives are going to win, the Conservatives are becoming a more viable vehicle for that protest sentiment."
Outside Montreal -- traditionally a Liberal bastion of support -- the Conservatives are "touching the area where seats are going to start to tip," Mr. Gregg said.
Furthermore, he said, "we have seen a significant shift among Bloc voters gravitating toward the Conservatives as their second choice over the past 15 days."
The Quebec gains for the Conservatives come as their Canada-wide momentum numbers soar too.
Nationally, 58 per cent of Canadians say the Tories have momentum, up from 53 per cent in the previous polling period. Only 14 per cent of Canadians say the Liberals have momentum.
Mr. Gregg said he hasn't seen momentum numbers like this since the 1993 election, which brought the Liberals back to power.
"This is a runaway train," he said. The other parties "are all getting crushed by this." Mr. Gregg said the only time he's seen momentum like this stopped was in the 1988 election, when Brian Mulroney's Conservatives managed to arrest a Liberal surge.
The Conservative tide that appears to be breaking in many regions is still meeting Liberal resistance in the Greater Toronto Area, the region covered by the 416 and 905 telephone area codes. Polling shows the Liberals lead the GTA in popular support over the Conservatives, 47 per cent to 34 per cent.
But in Ontario outside the Greater Toronto Area, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 41 per cent to 35 per cent.
Support continues to climb for the Conservatives in British Columbia, with the Tories rising six percentage points to 43 per cent in that province, while the Liberals fell four points to 24 per cent. The NDP rose one percentage point to 27 per cent and the Green Party dipped three percentage points to 6 per cent.
For the first time, Strategic Counsel polling shows a plurality of Canadians surveyed -- 47 per cent -- say the Conservatives will win the most seats in the Jan. 23 election, compared with 40 per cent predicting the Liberals will come out on top.
The feeling a Conservative victory is in the cards is the strongest in Quebec, where 58 per cent of those surveyed say the Tories will win the most seats, compared with 32 per cent predicting the Liberals. A plurality of Ontarians, however, 45 per cent, still believe the Liberals will triumph, compared with 42 per cent calling it for the Tories.
The federal Progressive Conservative party was almost wiped out in Quebec in 1993, winning only one seat in that province. It won five seats in the province in 1997 and one seat in the 2000 election. Neither the Reform nor its Canadian Alliance successor won seats in Quebec. The new Conservative Party -- a merger of the PCs and the Alliance -- was also shut out of Quebec in 2004.
The national poll was conducted Jan. 7 to 9 by the Strategic Counsel, although some regional surveys took place over a longer period. The national poll sample size was 1,500 Canadians and the error margin for national results is 2.5 percentage points, but increases for regional samples.
How would you vote if an election were held today?
Cons.: 38%
Liberal: 28%
NDP: 16%
Bloc: 12%
Green: 6%
Conservative Push
Province-wide support for the Conservatives has seen the numbers for the Bloc drop.
How Quebeckers would vote if an election were held on this day.
Nov. 20, 2005*
BLOC QUEBECOIS: 54%
LIBERAL: 30%
CONSERVATIVE: 8%
Jan. 7-9, 2006
BLOC QUEBECOIS: 48%
LIBERAL: 19%
CONSERVATIVE: 22%
2004 ELECTION
Conservative: 9%
Liberal: 34%
Green: 3%
Bloc Quebecois: 49%
NDP: 5%
POLL, Jan. 7-9
Conservative: 22%
Liberal: 19%
Green: 4%
Bloc Quebecois: 48%
NDP: 7%
*Polls taken every two or three days except during holiday period.
SOURCES:STRATEGIC COUNSEL
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