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Originally Posted by kutulu
I'm not as sold on Beckett as everyone else seems to be. First of all, his K rate and HR rate (both of which are excellent) will go up just from the switch to the AL East. On top of that, you have the fact that his great ERA was so based on his performance in Fla. His home/road ERAs were about 2.47/4.31. Finally, he's had 4 seasons and he's never come close to 200 IP (injury risk). Overall, I highly doubt that he'll post better than a 4.25 ERA next season. Not bad, but not great either.
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I agree.
He's prone to blisters and wait till he pitches in the cold North Eastern Spring air, as opposed to warm Miami.
I think him and Burnett face some rude awakenings. I think the warm Miami springs were extremely helpful for them, that won't find those up North where now a majority of there starts will be.
Fireballers when they start that young usually either burn out/blow out their arms early and never see their true potential (Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Jaret Wright, Benson, Oliver Perez, Jeriome Williams, Brett Myers and these 2 aren't the healthiest SP to begin with) or they really don't hit their stride and fulfill that potential until their 30's (Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Clemons, Bartolo Colon, Pedro even.)
I see both having horrid years this year. Burkett in Toronto I think is by far the riskier of the 2. Beckett will be gone from Boston by this time next year.
I see both pitching high 4 low 5 ERAs in April and May and falling apart in September, if they stay healthy.
This is not to say I wouldn't have wanted either on the Reds or Indians.... well yes I would have I'd prefer to see Vazquez, maybe Tony Armas or Washburn or Millwood....
But then again what do I know, GM's get paid for forgetting far more than I ever will ever know about the game and players.