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Martian · 11-29-2005, 03:28 PM

highthief - I disagree re: Quebec. Or rather I agree, but those one or two seats are going to be crucial. My guess is that the Bloc and NDP will pick up seats, with the Bloc gaining ground in Quebec and NDP in Ontario. The West is still the same conservative bastion it always was according to what I've seen, which leaves me to wonder what's going to happen in the maritimes. That's the only region I don't really know about. My guesswork goes more towards a Conservative minority or possibly Liberal. It'll be one or the other but either way I suspect a dead heat, with only a handful of seats' difference between the two parties. That'll leave either the Bloc or NDP with the balance of power. Judging by polls and the current distribution of seats I'd have to put it to the Bloc but if we see any Green or independent candidates coming back to Parliament Hill things could get really interesting.

Current distribution is as follows :

Liberals - 133 seats
Tories - 98 seats
Bloc - 53 seats
NDP - 18 seats
Indie - 4 seats

With two vacant. My predictions would go somewhere to the following :

Liberals - 105 seats
Tories - 100 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
NDP - 47 seats

With a small margin of error allowing for independents and a bit of leeway between the Tories and the Libs. The dynamic this creates is really interesting, because if some independents manage to grab enough seats to swing between the Bloc and NDP we could see a split, with Tories and Bloc working together on one side, NDP and Libs on the other and the independents holding the real balance of power. Naturally the independents aren't going to be unified so that makes things more than a little unpredictable. Of course, we could also see the Bloc, NDP and Tories all gain up on the Libs something like this past government, which just creates an unstable dynamic again and means we'll be having this discussion all over again in a year or so.

And that still doesn't take into account a possible bid for independence in Quebec. If the soverigntists gain much more ground there it could be a very real possibility and losing Quebec, needless to say, would seriously jeopardize our economy.

11-29-2005, 03:28 PM	#18 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	highthief - I disagree re: Quebec. Or rather I agree, but those one or two seats are going to be crucial. My guess is that the Bloc and NDP will pick up seats, with the Bloc gaining ground in Quebec and NDP in Ontario. The West is still the same conservative bastion it always was according to what I've seen, which leaves me to wonder what's going to happen in the maritimes. That's the only region I don't really know about. My guesswork goes more towards a Conservative minority or possibly Liberal. It'll be one or the other but either way I suspect a dead heat, with only a handful of seats' difference between the two parties. That'll leave either the Bloc or NDP with the balance of power. Judging by polls and the current distribution of seats I'd have to put it to the Bloc but if we see any Green or independent candidates coming back to Parliament Hill things could get really interesting. Current distribution is as follows : Liberals - 133 seats Tories - 98 seats Bloc - 53 seats NDP - 18 seats Indie - 4 seats With two vacant. My predictions would go somewhere to the following : Liberals - 105 seats Tories - 100 seats Bloc - 56 seats NDP - 47 seats With a small margin of error allowing for independents and a bit of leeway between the Tories and the Libs. The dynamic this creates is really interesting, because if some independents manage to grab enough seats to swing between the Bloc and NDP we could see a split, with Tories and Bloc working together on one side, NDP and Libs on the other and the independents holding the real balance of power. Naturally the independents aren't going to be unified so that makes things more than a little unpredictable. Of course, we could also see the Bloc, NDP and Tories all gain up on the Libs something like this past government, which just creates an unstable dynamic again and means we'll be having this discussion all over again in a year or so. And that still doesn't take into account a possible bid for independence in Quebec. If the soverigntists gain much more ground there it could be a very real possibility and losing Quebec, needless to say, would seriously jeopardize our economy. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame