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Originally Posted by highthief
I foresee a Liberal minority with the Libs take a few more seats than last time, the Conservatives coming in second, the Bloc third and NDP 4th. ONly one independant will win a seat this time. No Greens either, alas, not yet.
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I don't think that the Liberals are going to win anymore seats than last time.
Think about it
If people are thinking about CHANGING your vote, after the last 18mths how many do you think are thinking about changing their Tory, NDP, Green, or
Bloc votes to Liberal votes. Probably not many.
The more likely situation is that the people that are considering CHANGING their vote are people who voted Liberal last time.
Consider this: Is there any reason why people who voted Tory, NDP, Green, or Bloc should be unhappy with thier decision? maybe a few but most voted for those parties because that is who they vote for. But for those that voted Liberal, are there any reasons why they might consider not voting liberal again? You bet.
I am not saying they they are right or wrong.I am just saying that people who change their mind about who they vote for are doing so becuase they want change.
Furthermore, the Liberals are likely to lose a few more seats in Quebec to the Bloc.
We will proably see the following:
- Liberals down a few (I figure close to 10, there are at least 5 seats at risk in Quebec)
- Block up a few
- Tories up one or two (they will probably make it over 100)
- NDP even