politicophile

Let me give you a vastly simpler example so that we are on the same page:

Suppose I tell you that I have picked a number between one and ten and you are to guess that number. Now, if you guess once, you have a 10% chance of being right. This is the case because you win in 1 scenerio out of the 10 possibilities. 1/10 = 10%

Now, in the same scenerio, if you guess twice, you have a 20% chance of selecting the correct number because you win in 2 scenerios out of the 10 possibilities. 1/10 = 20%

Let's make this even simpler. Suppose that you must guess a number between 1 and 4. If you guess once, there is a 25% chance that you will select the correct number because you win in 1 scenerio out of the 4 possibilities. 1/4 = 25%

If, in the same scenerio, you are given two guesses, you have a 50% chance of guessing correctly because you win in 2 scenerios out of the 4 possibilities. 2/4 = 50%

Let's make this even simpler. Suppose that I am going to flip a coin and you are to guess whether it comes up heads of tails. If you guess once, then you have a 50% chance of being correct because you win in 1 scenerio out of the 2 possibilities. 1/2 = 50%

If you guess twice in this scenerio, then you have a 100% chance of being correct because you win in 2 scenerios out of the 2 possibilities.

My statistics teacher can keep his money, thank you.

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The peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is, that it is robbing the human race; posterity as well as the existing generation; those who dissent from the opinion, still more than those who hold it. If the opinion is right, they are deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth: if wrong, they lose, what is almost as great a benefit, the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error. ~John Stuart Mill, On Liberty