|
I don't think its time to panic over any particular landfall yet. This storm is moving so slow, and has yet to cross into the gulf. The computer models are still forecasting a US landfall on the SW coast of FL. These computer models were run several days ago when the LPS trof that is moving over the southeastern US was expected to move quickly and far south. 2 days ago it became apparant that this trof is not as strong, nor going to reach as far south as first predicted, yet the computer models have not changed. The storm was to have crossed into the gulf by now, yet it has stalled on the tip of the yucatan.
I believe when Wilma finally crosses into the Gulf of Mexico you will see the new computer models shifting the track farther north. Tampa will get nervous, but I think a landfall in tampa is less likely than a landfall farther north. I've been following some meterologists in the blogosphere that have an interesting scenerio where an apalachee bay, FL landfall is expected.
But for now it is still too soon to say where this storm will hit, but a FL landfall is most likely. We still see a NNW track and this storm would have to make a 90 degree turn to hit naples/ft.myers. (I'm not saying its never happened, I just don't see the weak trof pushing it so far). For now we can only wait and see.
__________________
"If I am such a genius why am I drunk, lost in the desert, with a bullet in my ass?" -Otto Mannkusser
|