so far we have one cited researcher who simply expresses doubt and a statement by al-qaida against its authenticity (who, by the way, in a position with nothing to lose and everything to gain if the letter is judged unreliable). if that is enough to convince you, then i think it says much about the level of cognitive dissonance this letter must strike you with.
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If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.
~ Winston Churchill
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