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i'm quite certain this letter is authentic. the fact that it's hosted on a centcom.mil server and already 4 months old implies that 1) it made it past the rigorous intel vetting, the military wouldn't release something this high profile unless they were sure of its origins, too much to lose otherwise (see dan rather)... and, 2) all intelligence that may have been gleamed from its contents has since been rendered null due to its age, making it safe to release for public analysis.
as to the letter itself...
after a couple readings, the thing that stands out most to me is the grandiose plans of top-level al-qaida agents. i think sometimes we (including myself) get too focused on the tactics of the battle rather than the strategy. it's too easy to get sucked into the mentality that the goal of al-qaida is to blow up humvees or crash airplanes... that's their tactic (or has been), but not their strategic goals. their ends have a specific geopolitical aim (restoration of the caliphate, supremacy of sharia, end of israel) that outstrips the contemporary label of "terrorist". true, they use terror tactics... but the tactics are quite obviously separate from strategy.
given these goals, as stated by al-qaida's leadership, i'm honestly stumped at how to go about restraining Islamic fascism except through hardnosed diplomacy and war when it fails. how can we possibly neutralize the current al-qaida fighters and their resources except through sweeping political/social change in the mid-east? we have to cut their legs (and dollars) out from under them and i can't think of a realistic plan that doesn't involve the possibility of more war.
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If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.
~ Winston Churchill
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