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Old 10-13-2005, 05:26 AM   #3 (permalink)
stevo
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Location: Tallyfla
My interperatation of this is that our strategy against al-qaeda is working to a degree. Their leadership is fractured and communication and "supply" lines have been cut off. There is concern over zarqawi's methods in iraq. While the letter is meant to assert focus on al-qaeda's ultimate goal of a greater islamic caliphate and outline what al-qaeda needs to do to accomplish its goals, it also clearly shows us what we need to do to defeat them. Zawahiri himself says half the battle is in the media and without the support of the average muslim and the Iraqi people they cannot prevail. He also explains how attacks on shia are not helping. This letter was captured in july, but all summer and just yesterday there are still attacks by al-qaeda on shia in Iraq. Whether zarqawi has his own ideas or just never got this letter, I don't know.

But I don't think civil war is an inevitability in Iraq. I think the latest developments with the Iraqi constitiution are a good sign. I've seen headlines that say it is only delaying the problems between the sunni, kurds, and shia, but I see it more as a continuation of the process, that no one is willing to give up just yet. Our constitution allows for ammendments. It is in some way a living document. And this is how the Iraqi constitution is turning out to be; a collaboration from different perspectives until agreement is reached, and they are still working toward agreement.

I believe as long as Iraqis continue to support and participate in the constitutional process, the economic infastructure of Iraq continues to be rebuilt, and support for the new Iraq is held by the majority (shia, kurd, and sunni alike) then when the time for American withdrawl comes, there will not be enough strife to cause a civil war. If al-qaeda does not have support, there will be no civil war.

But this is still a battle in the media for the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people and the average muslim, as much as it is hunting down the members of al-qaeda and finding IEDs and car-bombs before they find their targets.
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