Have you turned off hidden files and looked for hidden directories? Even though AVG didn't detect anything, maybe your computer has been taken over and is storing lots of warez secretly.
But first of all, make sure that your System Restore is a reasonable size. If it's set to back up too much, then it will reserve that space and with each restore point you will lose more and more space to it. One way to test is to turn off System Restore and clear all your restore points. If you suddenly get a massive amount of space back (maybe reboot first), then there's your culprit.
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