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Rodney · 10-02-2005, 11:07 PM

Well, we're at a crossroads all right, but they do come along with some regularity throughout history.

That said, the balance of a number of important power/economic relationships are very likely to change in the near future, and any one of them could have a cascade effect that would trigger some or all of the others.

For example:

* Currently, U.S. consumerism is the single largest force in international trade. And U.S. debt currently soaks up 70 percent of the currency surpluses of all other nations combined. How will the world economic system change when the U.S. can no longer afford to buy stuff (and also probably loses its grip on the World Bank, the IMF, and other controlling institutions). Will export industries collapse worldwide? Will unemployed Chinese revolt? Will the dollar lose its place as the leading currency and be devalued to half its current level? These things are possible.

* We are at the very twilight of cheap oil. What effect will, say, $5/gallon gas have on the economy. $3/gallon gas is already shrinking the pocketbooks of the working class, driving more people onto public transit, and causing people to drive less. Some people are changing their driving habits, even their jobs, to drive less. What happens to all the new, far-flung exurbs when it costs $30/day to make a 100-mile round-trip commute in giant SUVs? Will the exurbs empty out whle everybody heads back to the core metro areas? Will telecommuting take off bigtime? Will somebody actually try to make public transit work? I'm not even touching heating oil...

* Avian flu. Lordy. It's a wild card, but a nice pandemic could cripple the world economy and send hundreds of millions out of work, aside from all the dying. What happens next?

*Many believe that budget cuts meant to partly cover the growing U.S. deficit have hollowed out the federal government and its ability to cope with unexpected crises. When a national or international crisis comes along and the U.S. fails to cope -- say, outright civil war in Iraq with the Turks storming in to kick Kurdish ass, or the avian flu epidemic we're unprepared for, or more natural disasters -- what _will_ a disillusioned voter class be up for?

That's just a few. And you can see how they interrelate, so that one problem can cascade into other areas and cause more problems. There's health care, growing problems for the middle class, possible stock market crash in the U.S. that could also decimate the 401Ks, plus the increasing fall of old-fashioned pension plans...

You could be looking at a new word order without the U.S. in the middle, and a U.S. that, if made poor enough and angry enough, might be willing to make some radical changes --- I don't necessarily say good, just radical.

I think we're saying goodbye to the post-WWII era once and for all, and the alliances forged there. It's going to be a different world again -- more like Europe 100 years ago with several strong competing powers, but on a world-wide scale. Hopefully not as warlike.

10-02-2005, 11:07 PM	#13 (permalink)
Rodney Observant Ruminant Location: Rich Wannabe Hippie Town	Well, we're at a crossroads all right, but they do come along with some regularity throughout history. That said, the balance of a number of important power/economic relationships are very likely to change in the near future, and any one of them could have a cascade effect that would trigger some or all of the others. For example: * Currently, U.S. consumerism is the single largest force in international trade. And U.S. debt currently soaks up 70 percent of the currency surpluses of all other nations combined. How will the world economic system change when the U.S. can no longer afford to buy stuff (and also probably loses its grip on the World Bank, the IMF, and other controlling institutions). Will export industries collapse worldwide? Will unemployed Chinese revolt? Will the dollar lose its place as the leading currency and be devalued to half its current level? These things are possible. * We are at the very twilight of cheap oil. What effect will, say, $5/gallon gas have on the economy. $3/gallon gas is already shrinking the pocketbooks of the working class, driving more people onto public transit, and causing people to drive less. Some people are changing their driving habits, even their jobs, to drive less. What happens to all the new, far-flung exurbs when it costs $30/day to make a 100-mile round-trip commute in giant SUVs? Will the exurbs empty out whle everybody heads back to the core metro areas? Will telecommuting take off bigtime? Will somebody actually try to make public transit work? I'm not even touching heating oil... * Avian flu. Lordy. It's a wild card, but a nice pandemic could cripple the world economy and send hundreds of millions out of work, aside from all the dying. What happens next? *Many believe that budget cuts meant to partly cover the growing U.S. deficit have hollowed out the federal government and its ability to cope with unexpected crises. When a national or international crisis comes along and the U.S. fails to cope -- say, outright civil war in Iraq with the Turks storming in to kick Kurdish ass, or the avian flu epidemic we're unprepared for, or more natural disasters -- what _will_ a disillusioned voter class be up for? That's just a few. And you can see how they interrelate, so that one problem can cascade into other areas and cause more problems. There's health care, growing problems for the middle class, possible stock market crash in the U.S. that could also decimate the 401Ks, plus the increasing fall of old-fashioned pension plans... You could be looking at a new word order without the U.S. in the middle, and a U.S. that, if made poor enough and angry enough, might be willing to make some radical changes --- I don't necessarily say good, just radical. I think we're saying goodbye to the post-WWII era once and for all, and the alliances forged there. It's going to be a different world again -- more like Europe 100 years ago with several strong competing powers, but on a world-wide scale. Hopefully not as warlike.