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If you start with 100 pounds of ingredients and then evaporate off about 5 percent of the water, you're not going to still have 100 pounds of product.
But, yeah, you seem to be on basically the right track. Mostly these problems are about helping you figure out that, if you set up your flow correctly, you can just reverse the math and figure out how much stock you need to order.
100 lbm of pre-jam will be 0.45*0.85=38.25 lbm of water. So you need to evaporate about 4.917 lbm of water to give you the 33% water by mass. So you get 95.083 lbm of jam for 45 lbm of strawberries. At that point it's a straight proportionality.
45/95.083 = X/1
or about 0.473 lbm of strawberries for a lbm of jam.
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Simple Machines in Higher Dimensions
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