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Okay, I think I see what you're saying about soft/hard randomness. But I don't believe I agree per se.
Weather, I believe, is at least partly random in so much as it is dictated by chaotic motion. While chaotic motion must be 'sensitive to initial conditions' as says chaos theory, those conditions vary, and are difficult, at best, to determine. Aside from that, ongoing conditions change drastically, and with any imaginable human creation, it would be unreasonable to assume we could measure existing weather, human movement, spontaneous pollution, butterfly effect, atomic motion, cosmic rays and every other single possible variable that would be required to know exactly where any given rain drop may fall. Is there a pre-determine factor? Well, not exactly... there are millions. Part of those factors are due to human influence which, if free will exists, cannot be predicted.
Also note that I don't believe any of the above prove the existance of or non-existance of any ethereal, omnipotent or omniscient beings.
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