BigBen

Okay, that was scary.

My upper year stats prof could rip some serious holes in this guy's theory, but it is still a very unsettling read.

I was taught to be critical of any economic forecast that blended different years data together. Notice that the author uses 2020 consumption forecasts with 2010 production forecasts over and over again. You have to be looking very closely for it, but the conflict is there. Some of the sources he quotes do the same thing, or he blends quotes together to the same effect.

I was very impressed by some of the sources (CNN, MSNBC, LOTS of government posts) and while it did look like this guy has done his homework, there are some issues I have:

He talks like this is inevitable, and that there is no escaping. Oh, great, then why the fuck did you tell me? Like a meteor crash, why worry me if I can't do anything? Should I run to the hills and brush up on my survival skills? Is the Michigan Militia recruiting?

He did not quote any economists that I recognize in this post. There are several world class economists that base their entire research career on oil prices, consumption and production data, historical analysis, et cetera. I take comfort in this because that is my area of study. I would be freaking out if Barrow, Lucas, Greenspan et al. were freaking out.

Maybe they are keeping quiet because they don't want to cause panic because there is nothing they can do about it... I just got another shiver...

Finally, I loved how the author talked about individuals conserving fuel, and that savings only accelerated the inevitable collapse of the system. That was worth the time reading that alone.

While I don't agree with this apocalyptic doomsday scenario, it is always worth while to read these theories, to make us all take stock in our lives and determine what is truly important...

4.2/5

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