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Ok, it is almost time for the chase, with only two races left before the chase begins. Who will make it, who won't? Right now 128 points separate 8th place Carl Edwards and 14th place Dale Jarrett.
Right now Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, and Rusty Wallace are locks to make the chase, all they have to do is take the green flag at the next two races and they are in. Mark Martin, Jeremy Mayfield and Kurt Busch are virtual locks to make the Chase since they all have over a 170 point lead over 10th place Jeff Gordon right now.
The real battle is going to be for positions 8-10. Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon hold those spots right now, but Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Elliot Sadler, and Dale Jarrett are close behind, with Dale Jr, Kevin Harvick, and Joe Nemechek being longshots at this point. The only other drivers with a mathematical chance are Brian Vickers and Jeff Burton, and they will almost certainly be eliminated at California next week.
So who do you think will get spots 8-10? My picks would be Kenseth, Gordon and Newman. Kenseth is easily the hottest driver of the bunch, recovering from a disastrous start to the season with a number of strong recent performances. Gordon had such a good start to the year, then fell off, and is now coming back, not quite up to championship form, but good enough to make the chase. The last pick is tough since nobody else in the contending group is consistently strong right now, but I think Newman gets the nod.
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