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Originally Posted by powerclown
If you'd care to do, say, 5 minutes of research, you'll find that Zapatero (as well as his Socialist party) was considered an extreme outside shot for Spanish Prime Minister before the Madrid bombings. It is widely acknowledged that the bombings so shocked the Spanish populace that they effectively proved to be the decisive factor in the general election that ousted the government.
But don't take my word for it, google away.
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This statement is only half-true. While it is true that Aznar was ahead in the pre-election polls, it was not the shock of the Al Queda bombings that turned public opinion. Rather, it was the attempt of Aznar's government to blame the bombings on the separatists that sealed his fate by losing trust with his people, who were overwhelmingly against Aznar's foreign policy to begin with. Regardless, the polls were not so far apart as to give an "extreme outside" shot as you assert (3-5% lead, within the standard deviation, see article below). It was Aznar's to lose and he lost it because his government went roughshod over the other parties and he lied to his people about an important issue for political gain.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/inter...168989,00.html
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Aznar's conservative People's party and his hand-picked successor, Mariano Rajoy, were ahead of the Socialists by between three to five points in opinion polls published last weekend. But, the same polls said, the ruling party would struggle to keep its absolute majority and might have to govern with the support of regional parties.
A flurry of text messages and emails began to circulate around the country, accusing the government of lying and saying Spain's intelligence services believed al-Qaeda was to blame. There was no firm proof that evidence was being held back yesterday but the left-leaning El País newspaper produced details of the attacks from anonymous police sources which appeared to show the investigation was far more advanced than had been made public.
It quoted various sources as saying they disagreed with the government's line that ETA was the main suspect and claimed information on the case was not reaching the investigating magistrates.
Aznar's government, which had made 'no negotiating' with ETA a key part of its campaign, concluded that the terror group was to blame within hours of the attack, as experts expressed caution.
Acebes became the first official to state categorically ETA did it. Five hours after the attack he said: 'Unfortunately, on this occasion ETA has managed its objective. The government has no doubt whatsoever.'
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