Tecoyah, it is my best guess based upon his lawyers public comments that Rove will not pass the threshhold of the law where "intent and knowing" is necessary to convict him. Who will witness against him other than Novak? His testimony to the grand jury is yet unknown. Guilty of manipulating journalists? Certainly. Did Bush know he was doing this? Possibly in a very broad sense in terms of supporting Rove's strategic moves in partisan gamesmanship.
My considered opinion is that Rove will get off legally, and Bush never drops a friend politically, so he may get by there as well. I also believe that Rove is capable of anything, is a snake, and that this is one of the least of his machinations that should have been brought before the court. But that's just me.
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