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Originally Posted by kutulu
I don't like the idea of using pitch count data to make that prediction. Look through a few years of splits and you'll see that the numbers for pitch count groupings vary widely from year to year. You also have to consider the fact that this would be against the top hitters from each team.
To me it's worth about as much as using a player's BA w/ RISP assess his value (very little).
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I agree with you to an extent but the real point I was trying to make is that Curt preforms better, as most starters do, once they settle down into a groove. The pitch 1-15 stats show that Curt is prone to getting roughed-up in his first to second innings of work, which isn't really great if he's gonna try to close for the Sox. If he's gotta be in the 'pen, I'd use him for long relief instead of replacing Foulke.