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Old 07-06-2005, 01:55 AM   #4 (permalink)
host
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaver
While I do agree we need to plug the gap of spending, this would be mutually harmful to all three countries if they enacted these things.

Doubtful. With the slap in the face the Europeans gave the EU, and the value of the Euro slipping even faster, it will balance out fairly quickly. The economics of Europe dont support the high value, their trade deficits make ours look profitable. Heck they said it in your clip......
My money is on the euro...
Quote:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/ee.html
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/us.html
................USA................Spain.......Italy....France...Germany.....Euro Union
2004 GDP:........$11175 Bln...$937...$1609....$1737....$2362.........$11650

2004 Invstmt:% of GDP...15.7... 25.4...19.3...19.2......17.6..........19.5

Public debt:% of GDP.....65...53.2.....105.6.....67.7......65.8.........N/A

Current accnt bal:$-646.5 bln...-30.9...-21.1...-.3......73.6..........N/A

Exports:Bln f.o.b.....$795 bln......172.5...336.4...419....893.3.......1109 (2003)

Imports:Bln f.o.b. ..$1476 bln......222.....329.3...419.7..716.7......1123 (2003)

Resrv forgn exchg & gold:..$85.94 Bln.. 19.7... 61.5..70.7.....96.8......N/A

Debt - external: $1400 Bln-(2001) 771-(2004) 914-(2004)..N/A....N/A...N/A
If you use the figures above to attempt to evaluate what countries, by the measures that I selected, are "going concerns", the U.S. seems to have the poorest fundamentals. Trade deficits and percentage of GDP reinvested, indicate that the U.S. is in a trade crisis and is not investing it's way out.
1.)On the right, the "Euro Union" consists of 25 nations, only 12 are approved to use the Euro as their currency. The UK, Denmark and Sweden elected not to use the Euro, and 10 other countries must meet economic goals, first.

2.)The Import/Export figures $1109 bln and $1123 bln for the "Euro Union" represent net trade outside of the 25 countries in the union. (All figures provided are in bln - billions of U.S. dollars, except where a % is on the left of the row.

3.)External debt, in and of itself is a difficult figure to measure the near term impact of. (The UK has external debt of $4710 bln (2003 est.) and does not use the Euro as it's currency. The UK has a trade imbalance of $-33.4 bln, or
5 percent of that of the U.S. The UK GDP $1782 bln, is 16 percent of US GDP.

4.) I included only the 4 Euro Union nations which are approved to use the Euro as their domestic currency, and have annual GDP of near $1000 bln or more. 8 other Euro Union Countries,approved to use the Euro....including Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Netherlands, have annual GDP each of less than $500 bln.

The research that I've seen does not convince me that the Euro is a weaker currency, fundamentally than the dollar. For another currency to compete with the dollar as a world reserve currency, it must be widely held and readily available in great sums. The Euro is the dollar's only competition now, but could be overtaken in the future by a fundamentally sounder and more popular....to sheer numbers of people than the dollar or the Euro. The negative fundamentals for the dollar are trending in a direction, aggravated by a growing U.S. trade imbalance, deteriorating relations with many other nations, and an unknowable cost of near future military and domestic security spending, and a huge appetite for spending on foreign oil...that further reduces the amount of oil that a dollar will buy...that makes the U.S. vunerable to an attack on our currency by oil exporters or a boycott on the purchase of U.S. treasury bills.

Our government practices bluster, arrogance, and threats of pre-emptive war while it acts as if our oil dependence and eroding dollar fundamentals are not possibly our greatest national security threat. Our leaders are squandering our leverage. China and Russia are already in a position to force us, to do their bidding, unless we decide to risk a currency crisis that could cause a desperate, reckless decision to resort to war as a remedy by a U.S. leadership in denial. IMO, reasonable options to maintain something resembling our current, national lifestyle, may have already slipped beyond our grasp, even with a sudden change of heart and energy, foreign, and tax policy.

Last edited by host; 07-06-2005 at 02:01 AM..
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