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I have a 6600 gt PCI-E and it works fine. I run all my games at about the same settings as you and its smoothe. I know the Geforce 6800 gt is quite a bit better, but I'm not so sure about the 6800 and im too lazy to look up reviews right now.
Basically, 6600 gt is a safe bet, but I would probably wait until the price goes down. Should have a new line of graphics cards on the market in about 4-6 months.
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