jorgelito

Thanks for your reply dksuddeth.

I am starting to understand a bit more of the currency thing. It appears to be even more in China's interest to allow it to float as well. To keep inflation down and something else I can't remember, maybe something to do with their loan rates, not sure. However, as a political issue in the states, the issue is mistated. Unfortunately, it appears as if most Americans believe that the currency and trade deficit, if resolved, will somehow bring back their jobs. Truth is, we've moved away from being a manufacturing base and have been for some time. All our job growth has been mostly in services etc. Not jeans or shoes.

I will try to address both your and Pacifier's reply on the military:

To clarify, even though China's expenses may be 1/4 cheaper, and in the long run, because of relative gains, could potentially pass the US (assuming the US is a a standstill) in 50 years (as I understood it). Secondly, we need to look at what and where they are spending. For example, their com systems still lag far behind. It's highly unlikely that they can develop "in-house" any systems at the level of sophistication that the US possesses. That leaves buying the technology. well, the US isn't going to sell it to them (as far as I know). So, that leaves Europe and Russia(maybe). I agree that China is trying to rapidly modernize, especially Navy, but there's only so much they can do. Even with technology leaps, the US is still overwhelmingly dominant.

I'm not clear on the terms of EURO regulations but I think by law they are limited in what they can sell to CHina.

A third point, China's projection of power:

A). Naval - China's navy is relatively weak and functons at best, as a coast guard to defend against smuggling and stuff like that. We know they're in the market for an aircraft carrier but that's a pretty exclusive market. As far as I know, only the US, UK, France, and Russia have them. And none of them are very enthusiastic about selling China an aircraft carrier - sole purpose, to project forward capability, presumably against Taiwan and to flex muscle in the region, maybe even "quasi-challenging" the US (regionally speaking).

Submarines - China's subs, quite Frankly, suck (pardon the expression). Mostly old, diesel, Soviet-bought, some second-hand. Their home-grown ones aren't all that great either.

B). Ballistics - I think China has recently increased its range on some ICBMs. But perhaps the most important thing is China selling missile technology to places like Iran, Syria, and possilby (but I doubt it) N. Korea. But again, their tech still lags behind the West.

C) Air Force - old school Migs an airforce do not make - Although China has increase it's air force numerically (3 x Taiwan), techwise, nothing to write home about. But, definitely something to keep an eye on. Only advantage is, numbers advantage can swam and overwhelm Taiwan even though Taiwan has "superior" air force. Too small though. Otherwise, no way China can attack Japan by air without getting thoroughly whipped (IMO).

D)Coms - China has the same problem most "developing countries" have. They lack a modern coms system to provide communications, logistics, support, intel etc.

E). Army - Even China's land army, while huge, isn't really equiped for much more than defensive measure. Example, it would really suck to invade Beijing. Even if whoever attacked sacked Beijing, China is a huge country (slightly bigger than the US), and difficult to occupy. It's that whole " ten million Chinese running amok" thing.

Lastly, I just don't think either China nor the US want war. There's just too much at stake. Especially with increased relation and foreign direct investments involved. I believe any type of war or even military confrontation would be too destabilizing. I think both powers would definitely think twice, three times before considering that option. IMO, war would serve neither's interests.

I just don't see China to be a significant threat or "world power" now or anytime soon (within 20 years). But, I also believe China is a significant power and to be taken seriously. Again, this is just my opinion.

Cheers.

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