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Old 06-12-2005, 02:08 AM   #1 (permalink)
jorgelito
All important elusive independent swing voter...
 
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Location: People's Republic of KKKalifornia
The Emerging China Threat (?)

I've noticed the growing publice sentiment of seeing China as a "threat". I thought we could discuss what exactly does that mean.

I personally do not view China as a threat per se. At least not yet. I feel that the "so-called threat" has been a more of media fanning the flames and maybe even government re-direction or looking for a boogey-man (sp?).

The issues (as far as I know):

1. Trade - the deficit
Both the Us and EU have accused the Chinese of dumping(?) "artificially" cheap exports (textiles) and have proposed measures to counter that.

Unfortunately, I can't really make heads or tails out of the current information we have on it (sorry).

2. Currency
China has been accused of keeping the Yuan "artificially" low

I don't have expertise in this area, but from what I do understand, this could go either way. A while back, Greenspan himself said there wasn't any "real" problem with the peg, but a few days ago changed his mind. Makes me a bit suspiious, perhaps he was pressured to say so?

The issue for me is, even if the Chines float the Yuan, there's no guarantee what will happen.
a. If the Yuan goes up, US companies will simply source elsewhere (i.e. - Bangladesh, Vietnam etc.)
b. If the Yuan goes down, then the US has "egg on its face" in the sense that its contention proved wrong and then made things worse.

Unfortunately, some people think the Chinese are responsible for Americans lsoing their jobs. I used to think this too (embarrassed). But that simply is not true. The reality is, that jobs ill continue to be outsourced, go overseas. If not China, then elsewhere.

3. Military
In the current era of unipolarity, the US enjoys undisputed sole superpower status. I personally do not believe China is anywhere close to even challenging that.

For example - military spending - US, by far, I mean really far outspends China. The Chinese are at best, 50 years behind the US assuming the US does not progress (Sorry, I don't have the source handy).

The Chinese aren't a threat (IMO) to anyone but their own citizens, Tibet, and Taiwan. Also, I believe that the Chinese have "discovered" the joys of capitalism and understand the negative effects on their precious ewconomy if they cause a ruckus (Taiwan is another issue, IMO for another thread). In this way, they differ from the N. Koreans. In other words, they have a stake in "behaving". To do otherwise would be destabilizing and detrimental (in theory) to their economy. Therefore, it's in their best interest to "behave".

Sorry guys, I'm a bit drunk right now. Stress from studying and papers you know. I wil try to continue later. I think it's ok for now though.

Oh yeah, heres a link to an article on perception of the "China Threat" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050611/...us/china_fears

Last edited by jorgelito; 06-12-2005 at 02:20 AM.. Reason: forgot to add a link
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