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Old 05-29-2005, 09:56 PM   #37 (permalink)
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It isn't "whining", stevo. Avoidance of an examination and discussion of the sources and stability of our country's economic "lifeblood", needs to come to an end, even if it is too late to do much about it, aside from preparing for a rapidly accelerating deterioration in our standard of living and quality of life. How many knew that Norway was the third largest exporter of petroleum in the world? The U.S. consumes 25 percent of daily world oil production. U.S. daily imports are 12.5 million bbls. China's domestic production appears to have peaked, just as it's demand for oil begins to rapidly rise. In contemporary times, there has never been more downward pressure on the value of the dollar. Ford, GM, and most airlines, including the U.S. third largest, Delta, teeter on the edge of bankruptcy, although escalation of oil prices are still at an early stage

I offer the following to back my point that a crises is looming, and that there is nothing to fall back on to ease it's effects? What do you offer besides your own confident opinion?
Quote:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/featu...464050,00.html
The end of oil is closer than you think

Oil production could peak next year, reports John Vidal. Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye

Thursday April 21, 2005
The Guardian

The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group of ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of the oil age.

They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre because he is an industry man through and through, has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries.

"Don't worry about oil running out; it won't for very many years," the Oxford PhD told the bankers in a message that he will repeat to businessmen, academics and investment analysts at a conference in Edinburgh next week. "The issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says.

Campbell reckons global peak production of conventional oil - the kind associated with gushing oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even next year. His calculations are based on historical and present production data, published reserves and discoveries of companies and governments, estimates of reserves lodged with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, speeches by oil chiefs and a deep knowledge of how the industry works.

"About 944bn barrels of oil has so far been extracted, some 764bn remains extractable in known fields, or reserves, and a further 142bn of reserves are classed as 'yet-to-find', meaning what oil is expected to be discovered. If this is so, then the overall oil peak arrives next year," he says.

If he is correct, then global oil production can be expected to decline steadily at about 2-3% a year, the cost of everything from travel, heating, agriculture, trade, and anything made of plastic rises. And the scramble to control oil resources intensifies. As one US analyst said this week: "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye."

But the Campbell analysis is way off the much more optimistic official figures. The US Geological Survey (USGS) states that reserves in 2000 (its latest figures) of recoverable oil were about three trillion barrels and that peak production will not come for about 30 years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that oil will peak between "2013 and 2037" and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran, four countries with much of the world's known reserves, report little if any depletion of reserves. Meanwhile, the oil companies - which do not make public estimates of their own "peak oil" - say there is no shortage of oil and gas for the long term. "The world holds enough proved reserves for 40 years of supply and at least 60 years of gas supply at current consumption rates," said BP this week.

Indeed, almost every year for 150 years, the oil industry has produced more than it did the year before, and predictions of oil running out or peaking have always been proved wrong. Today, the industry is producing about 83m barrels a day, with big new fields in Azerbaijan, Angola, Algeria, the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere soon expected on stream.

But the business of estimating oil reserves is contentious and political. According to Campbell, companies seldom report their true findings for commercial reasons, and governments - which own 90% of the reserves - often lie. Most official figures, he says, are grossly unreliable: "Estimating reserves is a scientific business. There is a range of uncertainty but it is not impossible to get a good idea of what a field contains. Reporting [reserves], however, is a political act."

According to Campbell and other oil industry sources, the two most widely used estimates of world oil reserves, drawn up by the Oil and Gas Journal and the BP Statistical Review, both rely on reserve estimates provided to them by governments and industry and do not question their accuracy.

Companies, says Campbell, "under-report their new discoveries to comply with strict US stock exchange rules, but then revise them upwards over time", partly to boost their share prices with "good news" results. "I do not think that I ever told the truth about the size of a prospect. That was not the game we were in," he says. "As we were competing for funds with other subsidiaries around the world, we had to exaggerate."...........
Quote:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.html
Top 11 oil exporters of 2003 and peak production dates or reserves estimates:

1) Saudi Arabia 8.38 Peak Production Date 2008 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Saudi%20Arabia
2) Russia 5.81 Peak Production Date 2010 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Russia
3) Norway 3.02 Peak Production Date 1999 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Norway
4) Iran 2.48 Peak Production Date 2009 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Iran
5) United Arab Emirates 2.29 "probably has 60 billion instead of 98 billion, Campbell said."http://www.energybulletin.net/201.html
6) Venezuela 2.23 Peak Production Date 1995 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Venezuela
7) Kuwait 2.00 Peak Production Date 2009 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Kuwait
8) Nigeria 1.93 Peak Production Date 2009 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Nigeria
9) Mexico 1.74 Peak Production Date 2005 http://www.asponews.org/plots.php?plot=Mexico
10)Algeria 1.64 Peak Production Date 2006 http://www.asponews.org/HTML/Newsletter41.html
11)Libya 1.25 Peak Production Date 1970 http://www.asponews.org/ASPO.newsletter.034.php#252
Quote:
http://www.nytimes.com/financialtime...tml?oref=login
Top oil groups fail to recoup exploration costs
By James Boxell in London

Published: October 10, 2004

The world's biggest oil companies are failing to get value for money when they explore for new reserves, according to research by Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultant.

The report shows the commercial value of oil and gas discovered over the past three years by the 10 largest listed energy groups is running well below the amount they have spent on exploration.


The findings come at a time when international oil groups are considering how far to boost exploration budgets after years of falling investment. It also comes at a time when oil prices are reaching record highs as a result of soaring demand and limited surplus supplies.

Companies are spending record levels on developing known fields in regions such as the US Gulf of Mexico, west Africa and the Caspian Sea, which should guarantee production growth until 2008.

But Robert Plummer, corporate analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: "After that they will need more discoveries to maintain growth . . . the problem is exploration has not been generating returns.".........
Quote:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5074.html
Published on 1 Apr 2005 by ITAR-TASS News Agency. Archived on 3 Apr 2005.
IEA warns against possible acute oil shortage

PARIS, April 1 (Itar-Tass) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has come to the conclusion that the world economy is facing a serious threat of acute oil shortage. IEA experts have prepared a special report, due to be published within a few weeks, in which they warn the key oil consuming countries about the need for immediately taking tough energy-saving measures, if the daily oil supply to the world market is reduced by one to two million barrels.

The measures, suggested by IEA, include the reduction of a working week, a ban on using privately owned vehicles, the introduction of a 90-kilometre speed limit, the reduction of public transport fare and the encouragement of staff members to work at home, using Internet.

The conclusions drawn by the IEA experts reflect their growing concern over the macroeconomic dynamics taking shape on the world oil market. According to the information of Itar-Tass, the latest studies show that oil shortage will become more and more acute within the coming few months............
Quote:
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asi...l_bidding_war/
ChevronTexaco Warns of Global Bidding War

By Deepa Babington | February 15, 2005

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Asia's insatiable appetite for oil coupled with tight supplies has triggered the start of a global bidding war for oil from the Middle East, the head of ChevronTexaco Corp. said on Tuesday.

The rapid growth in energy demand from Asia coupled with difficulties in accessing oil reserves has also resulted in a new energy equation where the days of cheap oil and gas are numbered, Dave O'Reilly, chief executive of ChevronTexaco, told a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference.

Asian giants like China and India figure prominently in this new energy equation -- a development that should not go unnoticed by the U.S. government, O'Reilly said, without specifying what exactly Uncle Sam should do about it.

"What I see happening is the beginning of alliances forming between Asian entities and Middle East entities for the long term," O'Reilly told reporters. "And I think it's very important that our government recognizes and understands the implications of that."

The remarks come as the emergence of fast-growing nations like India and China on the global energy scene sparks fears that they may outbid Western oil majors in asset deals or in securing access to a shrinking pool of oil reserves.
Quote:
http://www.peakoil.net/MSC.html
Maximum Sustainable Capacity
Notes by Kjell Aleklett, president of ASPO

At the gas station you might think that the prize of gas is too high. As a producer in the Middle East you might have another opinion. In February last year Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world, started to discuss production using the term “Maximum Sustainable Capacity, MSC”.

If the production capacity is increased with 2 million barrels per day from 10 to 12 million barrels per day Saudi Aramco think that they can have a sustainable capacity in 17 years. Then they need to find new reserves replacement. If the country with the largest reported reserves can have MSC for just 17 years, what about the rest of the world?...........
Quote:
http://greatchange.org/ov-campbell,outlook.html
Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion

by Colin J.Campbell
Quote:
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/powr_014.htm
THE 2007 PEAK OIL DATE EXPLAINED
Media Release for Immediate Use
5 October 2004, Wellington

The real point is not so much the exact date of peak but the statement that the First Half of the Oil Age, which was characterised by growing production, is about to be followed by the Second Half when oil production is set to decline along with all that depends upon it.

Colin Campbell, Sept 2004.

.............One of the most influential industry energy statistics report to come out in recent months is BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. This report served to support a 2007 peak date. Some of the findings are summarised below.

Nine major oil producers have clearly moved beyond peak since 1998 including the UK and Norway (Norway is the 3rd largest OECD producer). Prior to this many other major producers including United States all peaked.

Cumulative depletion amongst this group is now about 1.5 Million barrels per day (Mbpd). Depletion is currently running at 4.91% compounding. In other words declining nations are running out of oil at 4.91% per year.

The remainder of world oil is coalescing around the OPEC nations and the FSU.

Combined production increases in these nations increased over 3.66% in the year 2002-2003. Some nations Iran, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have all increased production over 10%. This level of production increase has been necessary to meet the extraordinary demand, particularly from industrialising nations such as China and India. It is unlikely that these levels of production increase will be maintained even with massive new investment.

Thus, presently we have a situation where the current demand for oil is growing at about 3.5%. We have a combined 3.66% increase in production (we are currently just keeping ahead of demand). The world consumes 82 odd Mbpd. This year supply security has raised it’s head as the issue of the day, unsurprising with such a tight supply demand gap.

The clear conclusion to be drawn from the BP statistics is that depletion is now a significant influence and that rapid production increases are sustainable only in a very limited number of nations with high levels of further investment required.

Based on the best currently available reserves data known the peak production is unlikely to be significantly above 90Mbpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as the OECD authorities claim that production can exceed 110Mbpd within the next 10-14 years however these claims make the assumption that future discovery will be as significant as it was during the 1960s and that major non-conventional reserves (shale oil, oil sands etc.) can be bought on board very quickly. Furthermore the IEA currently underestimate demand growth by about 1.5%.

It is considered probable by many analysts that increasing depletion in some nations will offset much of the non-conventional oil production and discovery taking into consideration long lead in times and levels of investment required.

Nevertheless there is wide acceptance by industry and analysts that about another 4-8Mbpd of conventional oil is possible based on currently available data. Given current demand growth rates this meets demand for another 2-3 years.

Hence we come to the 2007 peak date based on current demand growth, and expectations of production increases offset by existing depletion statistics................
Quote:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...E5850FB067.htm
Expert: Saudi oil may have peaked
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT

As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil"...........

......Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd).".........
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